Gemini Stock Plunges 80%—Investors Sue Over “False” IPO Promises

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI), the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is now facing a proposed class-action lawsuit filed by investors who claim the company misled them about its business strategy before and after its September 2025 initial public offering (IPO).

The complaint, filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York and docketed under case number 26-cv-02261, was brought by plaintiff Marc Methvin on behalf of all investors who purchased Gemini’s Class A common stock during its IPO or through mid-February 2026. The suit names Gemini, both Winklevoss twins, and several company executives as defendants.

According to the court filing, the plaintiff alleges that the offering documents tied to Gemini’s Nasdaq listing painted the exchange as a growing crypto platform focused on expanding its monthly transacting user base and building out its international footprint. 

However, the complaint argues that these representations were materially false or incomplete, as the company was allegedly preparing for a significant strategic overhaul that would fundamentally alter its business model.

What the lawsuit alleges

The core of the complaint centers around five key allegations. Plaintiffs claim that Gemini’s IPO documents failed to disclose that the company had overstated the viability of its core exchange business, overstated its commitment to international expansion, and that its post-IPO financial and business prospects were inflated. 

The suit further argues that all of this raised a non-speculative risk that Gemini was headed toward an expensive and disruptive restructuring, making the offering documents and public statements throughout the class period materially false and misleading.

The complaint points to two key events that triggered the stock’s decline. On February 5, 2026, Gemini filed a Regulation FD disclosure on Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), announcing what the Winklevoss brothers called “Gemini 2.0.” 

This blog post outlined three dramatic changes: the prediction market product would become more central to Gemini’s experience, the company would cut approximately 25% of its workforce, and it would exit the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australian markets entirely. On this news, Gemini’s stock fell $0.64 per share, or 8.72%, to close at $6.70.

Then, on February 17, 2026, Gemini issued another Form 8-K announcing the simultaneous departure of three top executives: Marshall Beard, the former Chief Operating Officer; Dan Chen, the former Chief Financial Officer; and Tyler Meade, the former Chief Legal Officer. 

The same filing included preliminary unaudited financial estimates that revealed wider-than-expected EBITDA losses. The stock continued its downward trajectory following the disclosure.

The lawsuit seeks damages under Sections 11 and 15 of the Securities Act of 1933 and Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The deadline for investors to apply for lead plaintiff status has been set for May 18, 2026.

Gemini’s IPO and the rapid unraveling

Gemini’s IPO was one of the most anticipated crypto listings of 2025. The company filed its S-1 registration with the SEC in June 2025 and officially began trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker GEMI on September 12, 2025. The offering was priced at $28 per share, raised $425 million, and valued the company at approximately $3.3 billion. 

The IPO was reportedly more than 20 times oversubscribed, and Nasdaq itself invested $50 million in a private placement at the IPO price, signaling strong institutional confidence.

On its first trading day, Gemini’s stock opened at $37.01 and closed at $32, a 14% gain from the IPO price. However, the rally was short-lived. As of Thursday, the stock was trading at $6.01, representing a decline of over 80% from its first-day close and roughly 78.5% below its IPO price. The company’s market capitalization has shrunk from over $3 billion at launch to approximately $700 million.

The irony of the situation is hard to miss. At the time of its IPO, Gemini’s offering documents highlighted its international expansion as a key growth lever. Just weeks before the listing, the company had secured a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license from the Malta Financial Services Authority, launched staking services for ETH and SOL in Europe, and introduced Gemini Perpetuals for EU customers. 

The exchange also celebrated the launch of tokenized stock trading for EU users, with MicroStrategy’s MSTR being the first listed token.

Less than five months later, all of that was being unwound.

The prediction market pivot

The strategic shift that investors are now challenging began taking shape in December 2025 when Gemini received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC for its affiliate, Gemini Titan LLC. The approval allowed the company to offer federally regulated, event-based trading products across all 50 U.S. states. The company then launched Gemini Predictions in mid-December, offering users the ability to trade on outcomes of real-world events like Federal Reserve rate decisions, cryptocurrency prices, and political outcomes.

While the prediction market launch itself did not raise alarm bells, the February 5 announcement did. Under the “Gemini 2.0” banner, the Winklevoss brothers declared that prediction markets would be the centerpiece of Gemini’s future, stating that they believed prediction markets could eventually rival or surpass traditional capital markets. In the same breath, they announced the 25% workforce reduction and the exit from three major international markets: the UK, the EU, and Australia.

Customer accounts in these regions were placed in withdrawal-only mode on March 5, 2026, with full closures scheduled for April 6. The company partnered with brokerage platform eToro to assist affected customers with asset transfers.

Losses widen, layoffs deepen

Adding fuel to the fire, Gemini reported its latest financial results on Thursday, revealing a mixed but largely concerning picture. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 39% year-over-year to $60.3 million, and full-year 2025 revenue reached $179.6 million, up 26% from the prior year. 

Services revenue hit $64.6 million for the year, up 115% year-over-year, while the credit card business emerged as a standout performer with card net revenue of $33.1 million, up 185% from the prior year.

However, the cost side of the ledger overwhelmed any revenue progress. Gemini’s net loss widened sharply to $140.8 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $27 million a year earlier. For the full year 2025, the company posted a net loss of approximately $582.8 million, a staggering increase from $158.5 million in 2024. 

Sales and marketing expenses surged more than fourfold to $97.1 million, driven by crypto rewards, promotions, and card acquisition spending. Total compensation reached $225.9 million, including $85 million in stock-based compensation.

The Winklevoss brothers confirmed in an accompanying shareholder letter that Gemini’s workforce reduction has now reached roughly 30% since the start of 2026, deeper than the 25% initially announced in February. As of March 1, the company had approximately 445 employees, down from upwards of 1,000 during the 2021 bull market. The twins attributed part of the downsizing to efficiency gains from artificial intelligence, claiming that AI is used in more than 40% of Gemini’s production code changes.

Gemini recorded about $2.14 billion in monthly exchange volume in February 2026, placing it far behind the largest players in the global crypto exchange market.

A history of legal battles

This is far from Gemini’s first encounter with legal trouble, though it represents a distinctly different type of challenge. The company has faced regulatory scrutiny for years, including a lawsuit from the SEC filed in January 2023 over its Gemini Earn lending program. 

The SEC alleged that Gemini Earn, which allowed customers to lend their crypto assets to Genesis Global Capital in exchange for interest, constituted an unregistered securities offering. When Genesis paused withdrawals in late 2022, Gemini Earn investors were frozen out of their funds for 18 months.

That case was eventually dismissed with prejudice in January 2026, after Gemini Earn investors received 100% of their crypto assets back through the Genesis bankruptcy process. Gemini had earlier settled with the New York State Department of Financial Services for $37 million and contributed $40 million to the bankruptcy to facilitate full customer recovery.

Separately, Gemini also settled with the CFTC in January 2025, paying a $5 million penalty over allegations that the company made misleading statements to the regulator regarding a Bitcoin futures contract back in 2017.

But while those cases involved regulatory enforcement actions related to specific products or past conduct, the new class-action lawsuit strikes at something more fundamental: whether Gemini told the truth to its own investors at the time of its public listing.

What comes next

The lawsuit is still in its early stages, and Gemini has not yet publicly responded to the complaint. The lead plaintiff deadline is set for May 18, 2026, and multiple law firms, including Pomerantz LLP, Robbins LLP, Holzer & Holzer LLC, and Barrack, Rodos & Bacine, have issued notices encouraging affected investors to come forward.

For Gemini, the timing could not be worse. The company is simultaneously navigating a massive restructuring, absorbing hundreds of millions in losses, dealing with the fallout from senior executive departures, and now defending itself against investor fraud allegations in federal court. 

All of this is happening against the backdrop of a broader crypto market downturn that has compressed trading volumes and squeezed revenues across the industry.

Whether the prediction market pivot ultimately proves to be the right strategic bet remains an open question. But for investors who bought into the vision of Gemini as a growing, internationally expanding crypto exchange, the gap between what was promised and what was delivered has become the basis of a federal securities lawsuit.

Also Read: SEC Drops Fraud Lawsuit Against BitClout Founder Nader Al-Naji

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