Key Highlights
- Gemini launches prediction markets across all 50 US states, enabling trading on elections, data releases, and market events.
- The rollout follows CFTC approval, allowing Gemini to offer federally regulated event-based trading to US users.
- Gemini begins with simple “yes or no” contracts, with mobile app access planned for a later stage.
Crypto exchange Gemini has launched its predictions market platform across all 50 US states, enabling users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, including elections, economic data releases, and broader market developments.
The platform, named Gemini Predictions, became available through the company’s website and iOS application following regulatory approval. Prediction markets enable users to place a bet on the probability of a particular event happening, as priced by the expectations of the marketplace as a whole. Gemini is also offering zero trading fees for a limited period to encourage early participation.
Currently, Gemini hosts live markets covering a wide range of events, including Federal Reserve rate decisions, cryptocurrency prices, leading AI models, and political outcomes. Users can place simple “yes” or “no” bets, providing a real-time view of market sentiment.
CFTC approval opens door to event trading
The nationwide rollout follows a key regulatory milestone. On December 10, Gemini received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The approval followed the licensing of its affiliate, Gemini Titan LLC, as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This allows Gemini to offer federally regulated, event-based trading products to US residents. The approval marked the completion of a regulatory process that began in 2020 and reflects growing acceptance of prediction markets under US federal oversight.
Gemini, launched by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has been widening the range of its crypto products after resolving the initial regulatory problems.
It was listed on the Nasdaq exchange in September and is now working on other forms of crypto derivatives like futures, options, and perpetual contracts due to the competition rising in prediction and event-based markets in the US.
Despite this regulatory development, shares of Gemini Space Station, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEMI) went down following the press release. According to Yahoo Finance, these shares declined by 12.14% to close at $11.61 during regular market hours, while they dropped another 5.38% during aftermarket hours to close at $10.99.
Growing competition
Gemini’s move comes as other major crypto and derivatives platforms advance into prediction markets. On December 12, Bitnomial Clearinghouse LLC, a subsidiary of US derivatives exchange Bitnomial, received CFTC approval to clear fully collateralized swaps. This approval enables Bitnomial to launch prediction markets under a single regulatory structure.
At the same time, Coinbase Global Inc., the leading digital asset exchange in the United States, is also lining up its entry into this market.
Coinbase Global Inc. is expected to launch the prediction market and stock tokens on December 17, 2025, at a livestream showcase event. These developments highlight growing competition and increasing acceptance of prediction markets in the US crypto and derivatives space.
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