Key Highlights
- Polymarket now sees a 60% chance of Khamenei losing power in 2026 amid rising unrest and regional tensions.
- High-stakes trades show profits on prediction markets remain concentrated among a tiny elite of savvy traders.
- Iran faces 15 days of deadly protests, while turning to cryptocurrency to sell weapons and bypass sanctions.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now faces a 60% probability of losing power this year, according to Polymarket bets. The surge reflects a 25% jump in market expectations over recent weeks, signaling growing speculation about political instability in Tehran.
According to data from Polymarket, the entire month of December had shown a stable market with odds at approximately 30%. But in the onset of January, there was a remarkable increase in odds, and the “Yes” camp was above 50% and stable at 60%. Thus, market participants now expect the removal or resignation of Khamenei before 2027.
The prediction market further reveals an increased expectation of political turmoil in Iran from the trading community. Among the trading options is “Yes” in the market, priced at 61 cents, as well as “No” positioned at 39 cents.
Speculative bets and market dynamics
Besides the overall trend, individual trades have amplified attention. Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported a wallet spending $30,000 on a bet titled “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31.” The wallet’s creator even named it “Regimehasfallen,” signaling confidence in the prediction.
Additionally, analyst ADAM noted a suspected Israeli insider account, historically accurate on Polymarket, betting on an Israeli attack on Iran by January 31. This account, with a 100% win rate on Israeli military bets, accumulated shares as prices climbed from 21 cents to over 30 cents. Traders followed the move, pushing total market volume toward $2 million before the position closed the next day.
This also shows how some participants in this activity manage to utilize timing, strategy, and maybe insider information for gains. On-chain data shows that the trade cleared more than $128,000 in less than 24 hours. It is moves like this that underpin the high volatility and concentrated profitability in the prediction markets.
Concentrated profits highlight market inequality
There also appears to be a clear division among the users of Polymarket. According to on-chain analyst DefiOasis, fewer than 0.04% of trading addresses captured over 70% of all realized profits, roughly $3.7 billion.
While the majority of the users, 24.56% of addresses, made small profits between $0–$1,000, the total gains claimed by them were less than 1%. Therefore, prediction market profits remain highly concentrated among a small elite, the data indicates.
Regional protests and military considerations
The bets are taking place as Iran faces domestic unrest. Anti-regime protests, now spanning 15 days, have resulted in at least 544 deaths, with over 10,600 detained. Human Rights Activists News Agency and the BBC confirmed casualties among civilians and security forces.
Furthermore, reports indicate the Trump administration is evaluating military options. Trump’s statement, “Iran is looking at Freedom,” reinforces potential U.S. involvement. Iranian officials warned of retaliation against American military bases if provoked, raising stakes in the region.
Amid the chaos, Iran’s Ministry of Defense agency, Mindex, is expressing openness to purchasing and selling high-tech weapons using cryptocurrency due to financial limitations. This includes drones, missiles, and maritime systems. By using blockchain, Iran hopes to circumvent sanctions and continue its ministry of defense activities.
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