Key Highlights
- Coinbase is building a prediction markets platform with Kalshi for real-time trading on sports, politics, crypto, and more.
- The platform offers “yes/no” contracts, with prices set by traders and outcomes based on trusted sources.
- Users can trade predictions on events like elections, sports, and crypto, with payouts from verified results.
Leading crypto exchange Coinbase is reportedly working on a new prediction markets platform, according to tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong, who shared screenshots on X that appear to show the company’s upcoming offering.
Wong is known for uncovering unreleased features on big tech sites. The platform is said to be operated by Coinbase Financial Markets, the company’s derivatives division, in partnership with Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market operator. The offering is designed to be a derivative of trading markets where users wager on the possible outcome of future events.
Screenshots also reveal a Coinbase-branded user interface that offers an FAQ section and guides on how the markets work. In this market structure, every contract is binary: it pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if the event does not happen, with the contract price reflecting the market’s perceived probability of the outcome occurring. Users are allowed to trade “yes” or “no” contracts anytime before a particular event settles.
How the platform works
Prices on the platform will be determined solely by traders. Users will be able to buy or sell contracts before an event ends to lock in gains, limit losses, or adjust positions. Once an event finishes, contracts will be converted to their final value, following which payouts will be made.
Markets are expected to cover crypto, economics, politics, sports, entertainment, science, and technology, with new markets added regularly. Users will have to have a Coinbase account, go through onboarding with the regulated derivatives entity, and fund trades using USD or USDC from their main account. Once positions are open, funds will get moved to the derivatives account and returned when positions are closed.
The outcome of each event will be determined by a clearly defined “source of truth,” which is usually official data or trusted news. Coinbase has also shared a reminder for users that trading involves risk and that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The platform will operate under U.S. regulatory oversight via the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); all prediction markets are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets via KalshiEX LLC.
Growing adoption across platforms
Prediction markets are becoming more popular in finance and crypto. For example, Yahoo Finance now partners with Polymarket. Even Google Finance displays real-time event probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi, covering elections, inflation, and crypto milestones.
Crypto exchanges are also growing in the space. Gemini, for instance, is developing plans to launch a federally regulated prediction market called Gemini Titan, which would make event contracts available under U.S. CFTC oversight.
Meanwhile, Trump Media & Technology Group is getting into the game of prediction markets through a partnership with Crypto.com, launching Truth Predict on its Truth Social platform.
These changes show that prediction markets are moving from niche crypto sites to mainstream finance and social media, as more people use them to track real-world events.
