Robinhood Derivatives LLC has announced a new trading option, allowing certain U.S. customers to speculate on “who will win the 2024 presidential election.”
The platform has created contracts, particularly for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with trade beginning on October 28. These event-based contracts, which Robinhood sees as a means of real-time involvement, enable users to trade election outcomes and engage in political decision-making.
However, the platform clarified that trading would be conducted in fiat currency, with no crypto deposits or funding options available for these contracts.
The move shows Robinhood’s interest in event-based trading, which is expected to gain popularity in 2024 as people become more interested in alternate data sources and real-time social sentiment indicators.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have already carved out large market shares, with Polymarket processing over $2.3 billion in event contracts. Polymarket, though unavailable to U.S. users, holds a 99% share in the prediction market.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, a regulated exchange based in Manhattan, has hinted at expanding its offerings to accept cryptocurrency deposits, even though it now settles in fiat, similar to Robinhood.
Robinhood’s entry into this space reflects a longstanding American fascination with election betting. Historical betting on presidential outcomes dates back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with New York newspapers publishing daily odds during election cycles.
Now, blockchain-powered platforms like Polymarket carry this tradition into the digital age, though Robinhood’s fiat-only model keeps it distinct from these crypto-based competitors.
The demand for event contracts in 2024 has spurred significant growth, with the sector seeing a 500% rise in trading volume over the past year, according to CoinGecko.
