ETF analysts at Bloomberg ETF have decreased their chances to 30% for approval of spot Ethereum ETF in May. One of the senior analysts, Eric Balachunas, said, “We are [at] 30% odds.”
Balchunas stated in January that there was a 70% likelihood of approval by May, although James Seyffart, a colleague, had estimated that there was a 60–65% possibility.
Seyffart said on X, “This Ethereum ETF cycle feels like the opposite of Bitcoin ETF approval odds at the moment. The more we see/hear (and don’t see/hear) the less optimistic I become.” He added, “We’re ~73 days from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no movement.”
Grayscale and Coinbase met with the SEC on March 8 to discuss the possibility of turning Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). At the time, Balchunas stated that this would typically be a positive indication, but to the best of his knowledge, the SEC had not yet made a statement regarding the issuers.
The expectation of immediate approval has dimmed in recent months. The main reason is that no filing modifications have been made, which was the case before the acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs.
Crypto market-making company GSR projected 70% of approvals in January. Although the company continues to tilt in this direction and believes that approval is inevitable, research analyst Brian Rudick pointed out that its projections may soon shift.
He stated, “The one caveat is that we started to see movement with the spot Bitcoin ETF applications in October for their January 10 approval (e.g. issuers seeding the ETFs; DTCC listing the ETFs, etc), and we haven’t seen that with the spot Ethereum ETFs yet.”
Chief Legal Officer of Variant Fund Jake Chervinsky reiterated similar worries about a lack of advancement and remained pessimistic.
He posted on X, “To be clear, I’m not saying there’s *no* chance for a spot ETH ETF to be approved this year. I’m just saying that general sentiment in this early-mid bull market is overestimating the chance of approval given all of the political and strategic factors weighing against.”
Similarly, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF is expected to be approved by late 2025 or early 2026, as per TD Cowen, an American independent investment firm. Also, JPMorgan predict that spot Ethereum ETFs won’t be permitted before May.
Also Read: Jim Cramer Foresees Ethereum ETF SEC Signal
