Key Highlights
- Standard Chartered reduced its year-end 2026 Bitcoin price target by $50,000, citing deteriorating economic conditions and declining ETF inflows.
- Analysts warn that the market could see a significant capitulation toward the $50,000 level before any meaningful recovery takes place later this year.
- The bank anticipates downward pressure on digital assets until a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve potentially shifts the current restrictive interest rate policy.
Standard Chartered Bank updated its long-term outlook for cryptocurrency on Thursday, cutting its year-end 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price target by 33% from $150,000 to $100,000.
The change was detailed in a research note from the bank’s digital assets team, led by Geoffrey Kendrick. The revision comes after a period of ongoing market volatility and withdrawals from US-listed spot ETFs.
According to a report, the bank is taking a cautious approach with investors as the larger digital asset market continues to face challenges due to shifting economic conditions and a decline in investor risk appetite.
Bearish sentiment
The adjustment shows a growing negative sentiment within institutional banking following a market peak in October 2025. According to Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, the market should brace for further price declines in the coming months, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to around $50,000 before recovery begins.
This downward trend is linked to a weakening US economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest rate cuts until a leadership change occurs later this year.
Contrast with market peak
This is the second time in three months that Standard Chartered has lowered its expectations. In December, the bank had previously cut its target from a bullish $300,000. The state of the market now stands in contrast to October 2025, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,275.
The cryptocurrency has lost over 40% of its value since that peak, and its overall market capitalization has fallen by almost $2 trillion. Since their October peak, holdings of Bitcoin ETFs have decreased by roughly 100,000 tokens, and investors have pulled out close to $8 billion from these products.
Ether downward forecast
The bank also revised its forecast for Ether, reducing the end-2026 target from $7,500 to $4,000. With Ether currently trading below $2,000, Kendrick suggested it could drop to around $1,400 before rebounding by year-end.
The note indicated that the average Bitcoin buyer is currently suffering losses, having entered the market at an average price of $90,000. It also observed that Bitcoin is no longer living up to its “digital gold” label and is lagging behind traditional indexes like the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Underlying market maturity
Despite these price targets, the bank noted that the current market downturn appears more orderly than in past cycles. Kendrick mentioned that this selloff has been less severe than previous ones and hasn’t led to the collapse of any digital asset platforms, suggesting that the market’s underlying infrastructure is maturing.
The near future appears uncertain, though, as Kevin Warsh, the anticipated incoming Fed chair, may maintain a strict monetary policy that would prevent further capital inflows into digital assets for some time to come.
Future market outlook
The target cut by Standard Chartered serves as a warning that the road to recovery for digital assets might be more difficult and unpredictable than initially believed.
While the bank holds onto a six-figure target for the end of 2026, the short-term outlook is shaped by increasingly tough macroeconomic risks that challenge even the largest digital tokens.
Also Read: Denmark’s Largest Bank to Allow Investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs
