Key Highlights
- Strategy’s 650K BTC stash fuels fears of forced selling as mNAV edges lower.
- CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju says any new BTC “bear” may be shallower.
- MSCI’s review of MicroStrategy underscores index-removal risk for BTC-heavy firms.
Strategy Inc., the largest corporate Bitcoin (BTC) holder, has re-entered the spotlight after a sharp BTC downturn renewed debate over whether the firm may be forced to sell part of its 650,000 BTC stack.
The company is a bellwether for U.S. corporate Bitcoin treasuries. The latest turbulence comes as BTC-heavy firms face sharper volatility and regulatory scrutiny. MicroStrategy’s ongoing MSCI review, which could trigger major passive outflows, has added pressure to the broader corporate-BTC narrative.
Public commentary urges calm
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted an analysis on X, arguing that Strategy’s continued holding strategy materially reduces the probability of another deep drawdown like 2022’s 65% peak-to-trough decline.
Ju emphasized that “long-term holders should avoid panic selling,” highlighting improved liquidity channels and broader institutional demand. His post included a long-term drawdown chart showing Bitcoin’s retracements tend to moderate over time as structural buyers grow.
Bitcoin drop raises selling concerns
Monday’s BTC slide to roughly $86,000 rattled Strategy’s shareholders, sending the stock down more than 5%. The concern centers on the company’s mNAV, which sat near 1.2 earlier this week. If mNAV falls below 1, Strategy could be compelled to sell Bitcoin to maintain dividend distributions.
Strategy CEO Phong Le told investors that selling would be a “last resort,” stressing that the firm prefers to hold long-term. The company carries an average BTC purchase price of $74,436, meaning recent prices are still above cost basis but uncomfortably close to dividend-policy constraints.
MSCI index-removal risk
Pressure on Bitcoin-treasury firms is rising globally. MicroStrategy confirmed it is in talks with MSCI as the index provider evaluates whether to exclude the company from major benchmarks. Analysts estimate possible passive outflows of $2.8B–$8.8B, a decision due January 15, 2026.
A removal could reshape how equity-market allocators treat BTC-heavy corporations, raising questions about whether Strategy may eventually face similar scrutiny.
What comes next
For now, Bitcoin has rebounded above $93,000, easing immediate sell-off fears. Analysts say Strategy’s ability to maintain holdings throughout this cycle will play a key role in stabilizing broader market sentiment.
Still, with index reviews looming, mNAV pressure building, and volatility back, crypto-treasury firms head into 2026 in a tougher landscape. Investors will be watching whether Strategy can uphold its no-sell stance and whether Bitcoin’s next move supports it.
Also read: Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $90K Amid Regulatory Optimism
