Ethereum (ETH) traded higher on Monday, reclaiming the $3,600 mark after a week of volatility across the crypto market. The second-largest cryptocurrency is now looking at a possible breakout toward the $4,000 mark, rising around 7% in the past 24 hours.
The price recovery in ETH comes amid a mix of bullish on-chain activity and cautionary signals from the derivatives markets. According to Farside data, ETF outflows totaled more than $507 million in early November. Meanwhile, whale accumulation and upcoming network upgrades continue to provide optimism for Ethereum’s long-term outlook.
Whale activity and on-chain trends
According to Arkham Intelligence, large investors stepped in during the correction. On November 5, TRON’s Founder Justin Sun staked 45,000 ETH (worth roughly $154.5 million), followed by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who purchased an additional $70 million in ETH the next day.
The renewed whale accumulation aligns with CryptoQuant data showing record-high ETH trading volumes on the leading crypto exchange Binance. In 2025, trading has already surpassed $6 trillion, a level two to three times higher than previous cycles. On top of it, ETH open interest has climbed to $12.5 billion, indicating speculative momentum but also raising concerns of a highly leveraged market.
According to analyst Maartun, Ethereum’s open interest jumped +$1.9 billion (+10.2%) in a single day, a spike historically followed by short-term reversals in 75% of previous cases. The last three instances of similar leverage buildups all preceded price pullbacks.
This means Ethereum’s next move will likely depend on whether leveraged longs can sustain momentum above $3,500 or if the market sees another forced-liquidation flush before the next rally.
Institutional re-entry signals
Fresh data from CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets indicates a behavioral shift among large entities. The Spot Average Order Size for Ethereum has increased sharply following the recent market shakeout, a metric that historically marks the start of institutional re-entry and early accumulation phases.
During the dip toward $3,200, whale-driven spot activity spiked (green clusters on-chain), a pattern previously observed near local bottoms and late-stage compression phases before major rallies.
If this behavior continues and the $3,000–$3,400 region holds as structural support, Ethereum could be entering a low-volatility accumulation zone, setting up conditions for a final bullish impulse toward $4,500–$4,800.
Fusaka upgrade as a structural turning point
The Fusaka upgrade, set for December 3, is the next major inflection point for Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin, the developer and Co-Founder of Ethereum, has even said Fusaka’s PeerDAS is Key to Ethereum Scaling.
To clarify It introduces key scalability enhancements:
- PeerDAS data availability
- Verkle tree implementation,
- Layer-2 throughput improvements that could lift transaction speeds to tens of thousands of TPS, according to Ryan Adams.
If the rollout proceeds smoothly, it may spark renewed developer activity and capital inflow into Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem, reinforcing its position as the dominant settlement layer in Web3.
Ethereum eyes $4,000 breakout
Ethereum is showing early signs of renewed momentum, currently trading at $3,620, up 1.05% in the last 24 hours. At present, it is showing short-term strength after weeks of consolidation below $3,500.
ETH remains 14.5% below its 50-day SMA of $3,981, the yellow line in the chart below suggesting room for recovery if momentum sustains. CoinGlass data shows the long/short ratio of 2.8, which implies that only 26.3% of traders are shorting, reflecting a bullish bias among derivatives traders.
For Ethereum to confirm an uptrend, analysts are watching for a break and retest above $3,572, which could flip this resistance into support. The next major resistance sits near $3,994 as the 100-day SMA lingers at that price point, followed by the $4,179 level, the 200-day SMA.
Looking at this price action, a decisive close above $4,000 could mark the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal and trigger momentum-driven buying.
On the downside, immediate support is observed around $3,335, where the 200-day moving average previously acted as resistance-turned-support. A daily close below this level could expose Ethereum to a retest of the $3,100 zone, where buyers last stepped in strongly.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads near 45, suggesting that the market still has room to push higher before entering overbought territory.
If Ethereum holds above $3,600 through the week, combined with strong whale accumulation and a long/short ratio of 2.8, it can move towards $4,000.
Forward outlook: Scenarios for the next 4 weeks
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | Target Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Breakout | 60% | ETH reclaims $3,572, Fusaka upgrade proceeds smoothly | $3,800 – $4,550 |
| Range-Bound | 25% | ETF outflows offset whale accumulation | $3,300 – $3,600 |
| Short-Term Reversal | 15% | Leverage unwinding after open interest spike | $3,050 – $3,100 |
These probabilities aren’t “predictions” but scenario weights that combine quantitative and qualitative signals. They help to assess gauge risk asymmetry: ETH has stronger odds of continuing upward, but with significant volatility risk due to record leverage and ETF headwinds.
The Crypto Times’ take
If bulls maintain control above $3,600, ETH could climb toward $3,950–$4,000 in the coming week, with a breakout above that level potentially targeting $4,550. However, the leverage build-up noted by CryptoQuant’s Maartun remains a near-term risk, a sudden unwinding could trigger short-lived volatility before the trend resumes.
Overall, The Crypto Times’ in-house analysis aligns with a bullish bias, forecasting an upward continuation into the Fusaka upgrade window (early December), provided broader market sentiment and ETF flows stabilize.
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