Amid growing crypto adoption, the likelihood of a spot Ripple (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in 2025 by the U.S. SEC has surged to 93% on Polymarket, following a peak of 98.2% earlier this week on June 3.
This spike in approval odds, marking a notable increase from 84% just a week prior, is largely driven by recent regulatory developments, market speculation, and heightened advocacy from industry players like VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, who recently co-signed a letter to the SEC urging a return to a “first-to-file, first-to-approve” standard for crypto ETFs to foster innovation and fairness in the market.
Market analysts attribute the 93% approval odds for XRP ETF to Ripple’s growing global traction and institutional interest. If approved, the ETF would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the cryptocurrency, a development seen as a gateway to broader market participation.
With 10 major institutions—including Bitwise, WisdomTree, 21Shares and others—waiting for their XRP ETF approval, the review process by the SEC marks a critical step for the outcome. Now the countdown for the potential decision has sparked excitement within the Ripple community, with Polymarket bettors wagering over $87,594 on the outcome.
Ripple’s improved legal standing, particularly after a clearer stance in the SEC’s lawsuit against the company, has bolstered investors’ confidence in the asset. Additionally, rumors of interest from major financial institutions like BlackRock have further driven speculation, though no official filing has been confirmed from either firm.
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