Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, believes Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to hit $1 million by 2028 — and not because of anything the Federal Reserve is doing.
In a recent interview with CoinDesk, Hayes said investors obsessing over Fed policy are focused on the wrong institution.
“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn’t matter,” he said. “Powell didn’t matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime, and he doesn’t matter now under a Republican one.”
According to Hayes, the real driver of liquidity is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who’s managing the country’s rising debt burden through a mix of bond buybacks and auction strategies. This increase in dollar liquidity, combined with what Hayes calls America’s “inability to rein in spending,” is what’s pushing Bitcoin toward the $1 million mark.
“All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday. That’s all that matters,” he explained.
A Hollow U.S.-China Deal?
But it’s not just monetary policy fueling his bullish thesis. Hayes also points to geopolitics — specifically, the tense but theatrical trade relationship between the U.S. and China.
As both countries move toward what he calls a “surface-level” trade agreement, Hayes sees it more as political theatre than actual economic reform. “It’s going to be a deal on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to prove he’s been tough on China. Xi needs to prove that he stood up to the white man.”
He believes the U.S. will likely avoid imposing politically sensitive tariffs and instead turn to capital controls like taxes on foreign investment or withholding taxes on gains from U.S. assets. These quiet tools, he says, are more effective and less visible to the public eye.
“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls,” Hayes said, suggesting the U.S. could even experiment with forced bond swaps or ultra-long-dated debt.
Why? Because telling Americans to consume less just won’t fly politically. “Americans don’t like to do hard things. They don’t want to be told that you have to consume less,” he added.
China Has No Other Option, says Hayes
Despite the tension, Hayes says China will continue buying U.S. assets. The dependency runs too deep.
“They have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they’re buying off of America… but mathematically, they just can’t stop,” said Hayes.
In his view, this means even more money sloshing through the financial system, and Bitcoin soaking up the excess.
Inside Hayes’ Portfolio
Arthur Hayes isn’t just talking the talk — he’s all in. Roughly 60–65% of his portfolio is parked in Bitcoin, 20% in Ethereum, and the rest sprinkled across what he cheekily calls “quality shitcoins.”
Why? He thinks the market’s finally waking up to real utility. People are done with flashy coins that don’t do anything.
Investors, he says, are done with tokens that don’t actually do anything. “We are in fundamentals season. People are tired of coins that don’t do anything,” Hayes said.
In short, for Hayes, Bitcoin’s rise to $1 million won’t come from hype, but from macroeconomic reality — a system overflowing with dollars, political posturing, and a global appetite for hard assets that can’t be diluted.
Also Read: US Won’t Buy More Bitcoin Due to Debt, Says Arthur Hayes
