In a few hours from now, United States of America will wake up to vote and elect her 47th President after a high decibel political campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, where everything has been put on stake including crypto.
In the words of ancient Greek philosopher Plato, “one of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors” and with the same mindset, the 50 million strong crypto community of U.S. will be exercising their right to vote, to seek a better future for the global crypto industry.
Never before has U.S. witnessed an election where cryptocurrencies and their regulation became a major touchpoint for politicians. Donald Trump adores his crypto community and wants to make U.S. the Bitcoin Mining capital of the world. Meanwhile, Kamala has pitched more inclusivity in crypto ownership with stress on black men.
But things are not as rosy as they appear. Bitcoin currently stands at $68,638, after achieving an all time high just last weekend. The grounds of crypto markets are shaky and even the seasoned bulls know about it as they brace for heavy volatility that will ensue once the average American voter queues up and votes on Tuesday.
Analysts have varying predictions about the election’s impact on BTC price, estimating it to remain between 8% and 10%, which means an $8000 swing. According to Bloomberg, Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets said the option market could move about 8% in either direction on the election day, which is more than a typical 2% move on a normal day.
Another analyst and popular crypto trader named Daan Crypto Trades predicted a 10% move. Daan wrote in his X post- “ Bitcoin is not the cleanest-looking weekly candle this week but with what’s coming I don’t think it really matters either way.
I think there is a good probability that price will see at least a 10% move to either direction depending on who ends op winning the election this week.”
The election fight is close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as both supported crypto previously. However, there is a difference between their approaches toward crypto. Trump took a pro-crypto stance, fully endorsing the potential of the crypto industry, while Harris has adopted a more cautious approach, pledging to support a regulatory framework for digital assets.
In the past few days, Bitcoin has shown some impressive spikes, Trump’s support for crypto has made Bitcoin prices rise to a high of $73,624 when he was leading in polls. However, as the trump election odds dip the BTC price shows a slight decline of 8% from its previous high.
Moreover, when we look at the history post-election dips have led to long-term uptrends. Past elections (2012, 2016, and 2020) saw a similar pattern: a minor drop followed by a steady rise, aligning with Bitcoin’s growth cycles.
Conclusion
With a pattern of upward movement following elections, Bitcoin might approach a parabolic bull run, especially post-halving. Considering a 10% impact, if the BTC price took a 10% dip it could reach the level of $61,830 and if the price took a 10% up it could break its all-time high and reach to the level of $75,571. Traders are prepared for both price increases and decreases.
Also Read: Verdict’s Out: US Voters Prefer Crypto President In 2024
