Key Highlights
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $679 million in weekly net outflows, their largest weekly total since late June, while Ethereum ETFs saw $542 million in outflows.
- Wintermute said crypto markets lacked the capital-flow support seen in equities, where third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth estimates approached 29% year over year.
- Bitcoin declined 3.2% and Ethereum fell 7% over the week, while altcoins recorded an average decline of 2.9%.
Trading firm Wintermute reported that cryptocurrency lost support from capital flows last week while equities retained backing from earnings expectations as Bitcoin declined 3.2%, and Ethereum fell 7.0% in the last week. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $679 million in net outflows, the largest weekly total since late June. Ethereum ETFs saw $542 million in net outflows.
According to the data from CoinGecko (on October 13, at 14:00 UTC), global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.9 trillion on Tuesday, reflecting a 0.3% decline over the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin traded at $83,173.84, down 0.1% in both the past hour and the past day. Ethereum was priced at $2,501.40, unchanged over one hour but down 1.6% over 24 hours. Tether held near $0.9992, BNB at $740.49, and XRP at $1.36.
Macro backdrop and Federal Reserve outlook
Federal Open Market Committee minutes released last Wednesday showed that most officials expect another interest-rate increase by year-end. Rate cuts were not mentioned in the document. Market pricing indicated approximately 20% odds of a hike at the end of October. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached a multi-decade high on the day of the minutes release and stood near 5.24%.
Across asset classes, the S&P 500 set a record on Tuesday and finished the week up 1.2%. Longer-dated Treasuries rose 0.65%, the Nasdaq gained 0.2%, Brent crude advanced 1.4%, and gold rose 1.2%. The Russell 2000 declined 0.9%. Cryptocurrency markets moved lower overall, with altcoins falling 2.9% on average.
Wintermute noted that third-quarter earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500 stood near 29% year over year and continued to rise. Cryptocurrency lacks comparable earnings support and has depended on continued inflows of new capital.
Digital asset performance
Bitcoin opened the week near $86,000 to $87,000, failed to hold those levels for a third time on Tuesday, and declined to approximately $83,000 following the minutes and the yield increase. The asset reached a low near the 80,400-83,000 range by Monday. It remained above the $82,500 level identified earlier as a range high.
On October 12, CoinGlass data showed $1.19 billion in liquidations over 24 hours around Thursday’s low, of which about $1.06 billion involved long positions. Bitcoin dominance rose toward 59.5%. Ethereum’s larger decline coincided with a separate development in which a researcher associated with the Ethereum Foundation urged users to migrate to new addresses.
Of 66 large-capitalization altcoins with market values above $1 billion, only 11 finished the week higher. The median decline among them was 3.7%. Uniswap fell 15.8% after gains in the prior month. Capital that left liquid decentralized-finance tokens and other large-capitalization assets moved toward AI-related tokens, with Near Protocol continuing to outperform after a brief dip.
Conditions cited by Wintermute
Wintermute stated that a sustained recovery in cryptocurrency would require long-term Treasury yields to stabilize and spot ETF flows to turn positive. Until those conditions are met, Bitcoin remains exposed to volatility and downside risks. The firm said lower-quality altcoin rallies should be approached cautiously.
The firm remains constructive on a longer-term basis. It would adopt a more cautious stance if the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield exceeds the 5.64% level reached on September 30 or if Bitcoin repeatedly fails to break above $82,500.
This week’s economic calendar includes the September consumer-price-index report on Wednesday, which will provide data on whether energy inflation is spreading into core measures. Earnings from financial institutions and AI-related companies are also scheduled to begin.
Recent rate expectations
On October 2, prediction-market platform Kalshi priced an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain its benchmark rate at the October meeting. The market assigned a 16% chance to a 25-basis-point increase and a 1% chance to a larger hike. Trading volume on the contract totaled $7,233,598.
That pricing followed the September employment report, which showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 29,000 against a consensus forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, driven largely by labor force expansion. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to its lowest annual rate since May 2021. On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin traded near $83,174 and Ethereum near $2,501, while the broader market capitalization remained at $2.9 trillion.
Also Read: 21Shares Launches Anthropic Pre-IPO ETP Tied to Binance Perps
