Key Highlights
- Kalshi’s October Federal Reserve meeting contract shows an 84% probability of no rate change, based on market pricing as of October 2, 2026.
- The contract assigns a 16% probability to a 25-basis-point hike and about 1% to an increase larger than 25 basis points, according to the platform.
- Trading volume on the contract has reached approximately $7.23 million.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, currently prices an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate at the October meeting.
According to the report, the market assigns a 16% chance to a 25 basis point increase and a 1% chance to a hike larger than 25-basis-points. Trading volume on the contract stands at $7,233,598.
The pricing follows the September employment report released earlier this month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, compared with the consensus forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The increase in the unemployment rate was attributed largely to an expansion in the labor force. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to its lowest annual rate since May 2021.
Market participants adjusted rate expectations after the data release. Equity indexes advanced on the day of the report. Traders interpreted the softer-than-expected job gains and the rise in unemployment as reducing the likelihood of additional monetary tightening in the near term.
The labor-force expansion that contributed to the higher unemployment rate indicated continued participation rather than outright job losses. Nonetheless, the combination of weaker hiring and moderating wage pressures led prediction markets and interest-rate futures to assign a high probability to an unchanged policy stance at the October meeting.
September rate decision
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%.
The move marked the first increase since July 2023. In its statement, the committee cited elevated inflation and the need to support a return to the 2% inflation objective. Officials described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace while noting that uncertainty remained elevated.
The September increase differs in scale from the 2022–2023 tightening cycle. Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Reserve raised the target range by a cumulative 525 basis points across eleven separate decisions, moving the range from near zero to 5.25%–5.50%. The current target range of 3.75%–4.00% reflects a more measured adjustment.
Market pricing evolution
Kalshi’s contract on the October decision shows the probability of a hold rising sharply after the employment data. The green line representing the “Fed maintains rate” outcome moved from levels near 50% in late September toward the current 84% reading.
The blue line tracking a 25-basis-point hike declined correspondingly, while the orange line for a larger increase remained near 1% throughout the recent period.
The platform’s aggregate volume of more than $7.2 million reflects sustained interest in the contract. Similar contracts on other prediction venues and federal funds futures have shown parallel movements, with the implied probability of no change in October rising after the jobs report.
The Federal Reserve meeting scheduled reveals that the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) is scheduled for October 27-28, and the rate decision release and press conference are scheduled for October 28.
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