Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market in the United States, is investigating a small cluster of trades that correctly bet on Katie Zacharia becoming the next White House press secretary before her selection was reported. The positions were opened while the market treated her as a long shot with roughly a 1% chance of getting the job.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the review on October 9, 2026. A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed to the newspaper that the company is examining the trades but declined to share further details. Kalshi has not named the account holders, and neither the company nor any regulator has accused them of wrongdoing.
How the Trades Unfolded
Public market data reviewed by the Journal shows at least three positions on Zacharia were opened before her name surfaced in the press. The first, a bet of about $19, was placed at around 10:43 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Thursday, October 8. That single position is expected to return about $1,896 once the market settles.
Two more trades, of about $74 and $80, followed at roughly 1:41 p.m. ET on Friday, October 9. That was less than 20 minutes before news outlets began reporting the pick at around 2 p.m. ET. In total, the three positions cost about $173 and carry combined expected payouts of roughly $9,600.
On Kalshi, a “Yes” contract pays $1 if the event happens and nothing if it does not. The contract’s price works as the market’s implied probability, so a contract trading at 1 cent signals a 1% chance. A correct bet at that price can return close to 100 times the amount staked, which is why trades placed at such low odds just before an announcement draw attention.
Who Is Katie Zacharia
Trump confirmed the choice on Friday afternoon in a post on Truth Social, saying he was confident she would “deliver strong results for our Country.” He also called her “a devoted fan and member of MAGA,” according to ABC News.
Zacharia, a California-based attorney and conservative commentator, has worked since June as a senior communications adviser at Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company that owns Truth Social. Earlier in 2026, she spent roughly two months as a spokesperson and deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), a post she took up in mid-February before leaving in March.
She has also worked as a legal adviser to Fix California, a conservative group founded by Trump ally Richard Grenell, and has appeared regularly as a commentator on Newsmax and Fox News. She replaces Karoline Leavitt, whose exit Trump announced on August 12 and who left the role in late August.
A Growing List of Political Trading Cases on Kalshi
The Zacharia review adds to a string of enforcement actions tied to Kalshi’s political markets this year. In July, a White House teleprompter operator was placed on unpaid leave after reports that he had bet on the content of presidential speeches.
On August 28, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates Kalshi as a designated contract market, ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to give up $107,539.02 in trading profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty.
The order also imposed a three-year trading ban. The CFTC found that Perez traded “mention market” contracts, which let users bet on whether the president will say specific words or phrases, between December 2025 and February 2026, using speech text he saw in advance.
The regulator credited KalshiEX, the exchange’s operating entity, for its assistance. The total of more than $172,000 made it one of the largest penalties yet tied to prediction market trading by a government employee.
Days later, on August 31, Kalshi announced its first-ever permanent ban against former Republican Representative George Santos. The exchange’s compliance department concluded that Santos made public statements about attending the State of the Union address to move the price of contracts he was trading, earning about $17,839. Santos had already settled with the CFTC in July, agreeing to pay more than $35,000 and accept a three-year trading ban, before Kalshi issued its lifetime ban.
Following the Perez case, Kalshi began requiring users to disclose their employer, and its rules bar trading on information obtained through a person’s job.
What Comes Next
Kalshi has not said whether it plans to refer the Zacharia trades to the CFTC, freeze any accounts, or take other steps beyond its current review. The case differs from the Perez and Santos matters in one key way: the dollar amounts are small, while the return relative to the market’s odds is large. That makes it a test of whether exchange surveillance systems can flag activity that looks small but is unusual in timing.
Well-timed bets on long shots can also come from public rumors, informed guesswork, or plain luck. Kalshi’s review has not established how the traders reached their positions, and the outcome will depend on what the exchange finds in its account and trading records.
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