Key Highlights
- Bitcoin profit supply drops to 59%, nearing bear market levels and signaling a potential accumulation phase for investors.
- Nearly half of Bitcoin holders are in loss, a rare setup that has historically aligned with long-term buying opportunities.
- Rising long-term holder supply shows investors are holding tighter despite volatility, hinting at cautious market confidence.
Bitcoin’s profit levels are dropping to ranges usually seen during bear markets, signaling caution for investors. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, about half of all Bitcoin holders are currently at a loss.
“Today, nearly 1 BTC out of 2 is held at a loss,” he said, highlighting the unusual market situation. Only around 59% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit, well below the historical average of 75%.
This shows that the market is not in overheat or even panic mode, but perhaps moving into a stage that calls for strategic accumulations.
Usually, when profits go beyond 90%, the market tends to peak resulting in massive sales. However, values of the index ranging between 45%-60%, such as 58.7% as in this case, have traditionally been the point of accumulation.
Darkfost summarized the approach: “Accumulate when losses reach extreme levels and reduce exposure when profits approach 100%.”
Long-term holder supply shifts
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply is trending upward. Earlier Darkfost noted, “We can observe that the supply held by Long Term Holders is gradually increasing, which represents a constructive and positive signal.”
This happens as coins held for six months or more move from Short-Term Holders to Long-Term Holders, showing that more investors are holding than selling.
The metric has moved from –674,000 BTC at the end of November to around +308,000 BTC on average, meaning more coins are staying in long-term custody. However, experts warn that similar patterns in past bear markets did not always lead to sustained price gains.
Market volatility and external factors
Broader market events are also affecting Bitcoin’s short-term moves. The cryptocurrency bounced back to $70,900 after falling to around $67,000 earlier in the week. The rebound came after a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire pushed oil prices sharply lower.
At the time of publishing, BTC was trading near $71,150 with a 24 hour trading volume of $37.52 billion—as per CoinMarketCap data.
Analysts at Bitfinex in their latest market update said, “A 15–16 percent collapse in crude, if sustained, materially brings forward the potential cut window… which is a structural tailwind for non-yielding risk assets, including bitcoin.”
At the same time, liquidations remain high. As per Coinglass data, Bitcoin led with $85.33 million in forced closures, followed by Ethereum at $56.53 million, highlighting ongoing market fragility. Total liquidations across the crypto market hit $268 million in 24 hours, showing both volatility and high leverage among traders.
Investors must weigh the chance to buy against ongoing risks. Trends in profit levels and long-term holdings suggest caution, but patient buyers could benefit.
Also Read: Fartcoin Drops 13% After Failed Manipulation Attempt on Hyperliquid
