Key Highlights
- Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal told Fox Business he expects a CLARITY Act deal on stablecoin yields within 48 hours.
- The Senate delayed releasing updated draft text this week, with a Tillis spokesperson citing strategic timing concerns ahead of the April markup.
- Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 currently sit around 51%, down from highs above 70% earlier this year.
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said he is confident that a deal on stablecoin yields under the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) will be reached within 48 hours, offering the strongest signal yet that the months-long standoff between crypto firms and banks may be nearing its end.
Speaking on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria on April 1, Grewal framed the CLARITY Act as critical unfinished business following the passage of the GENIUS Act last year, which he called a “watershed” moment for the crypto industry. While the GENIUS Act established a regulatory framework for stablecoins, it left a gap in market structure, one that the CLARITY Act is designed to fill by drawing clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC for digital assets.
Stablecoin yield: The last big hurdle
The stablecoin yield provision has been the single biggest obstacle to the CLARITY Act’s progress since the Senate Banking Committee pulled a scheduled markup in January. Banks have argued that allowing crypto platforms to offer yield on stablecoin balances would trigger deposit flight from the traditional banking system. Crypto firms, led by Coinbase, have countered that restricting rewards would hurt consumers and stifle competition.
A bipartisan compromise reached in principle on March 20 by Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) proposed banning passive yield on idle stablecoin balances while permitting activity-based rewards tied to payments, transfers, and platform usage. However, Coinbase rejected the latest draft text after reviewing the March 23 language, calling the restrictions too broad.
Grewal’s comments on Fox Business suggest the gap between the two sides has narrowed significantly since that rejection, though the exact terms of any emerging deal remain unclear.
Senate delays draft text, eyes April markup
Despite the optimism from Coinbase’s camp, the Senate is not expected to release an updated CLARITY Act draft text this week. A spokesperson for Senator Tillis told Crypto in America that the delay reflects concerns about giving opponents too much lead time to slow the bill’s momentum ahead of the committee vote.
The Senate Banking Committee markup is targeted for the second half of April, after the Easter recess ends on April 13. Chairman Tim Scott controls the calendar, and the yield text must hold before he sets a date. Beyond stablecoin yields, unresolved issues around DeFi oversight, token classification, and ethics provisions related to government officials’ crypto holdings also need to be addressed.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, who has been vocal throughout the process, previously described the stablecoin yield talks as “99% resolved” and confirmed the April markup timeline at the DC Blockchain Summit.
Market odds remain split
Prediction markets reflect the legislative uncertainty. Polymarket currently prices the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at approximately 51%, down sharply from highs above 70–90% seen during periods of peak optimism in February and March. The decline tracks Coinbase’s second rejection of the bill and sustained lobbying pressure from banking groups.
Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn has warned that if the bill does not reach the Senate floor by early May, it is unlikely to pass in 2026 due to midterm election dynamics. Senator Bernie Moreno echoed the concern, stating that missing the window could push digital asset legislation off the table for years.
What comes next
If Grewal’s 48-hour prediction holds, it would remove the biggest procedural barrier to advancing the CLARITY Act through committee. From there, the bill would need to be merged with a version that already cleared the Senate Agriculture Committee, pass a full Senate vote requiring 60 or more votes, go through conference with the House version, and reach President Trump’s desk for signature.
The legislative path remains compressed, but the Coinbase CLO’s public confidence, after weeks of his company opposing the bill, may signal that a workable compromise is closer than the Polymarket odds suggest.
Also Read: 3-Week Countdown Begins For CLARITY Act: Coinbase Research Head
The Crypto Files: The Clarity Act Explained
