Key Highlights
- Willy Woo identifies a break in Bitcoin’s 12-year trend relative to gold, citing quantum computing awareness.
- Around 4 million lost BTC could return to circulation, a factor the market is pricing in.
- Bitcoin price may remain under pressure for the next decade, despite macro demand for hard assets.
Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo posted on X that a long-term trend in Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold has broken. Woo shared a graph illustrating a 12-year trend in which Bitcoin steadily gained value against gold. He claims this trend has been interrupted with the emergence of quantum computing awareness.
According to Woo, Bitcoin should currently be valued significantly higher relative to gold. He explained, “BTC should be a lot higher relative to gold. Should be. IT’S NOT.” He attributes the deviation to the market pricing in potential risks from quantum computing and lost coins returning to circulation.
Quantum computing and the “Q-Day” risk
Willy Woo emphasized that the market is pricing in what he calls “Q-Day” risk—the eventual point when quantum computing could potentially threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography.
He stated that Bitcoin will likely adopt quantum-resistant signatures in the future, but this will not prevent the approximately 4 million lost bitcoins from re-entering circulation.
Woo estimates a 75% chance that these lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork, meaning that the market must account for the potential impact of 4 million BTC coming back into circulation.
To put this into context, he noted, “Since Strategy started accumulating BTC in 2020 setting a trend, only a total of 2.8 million BTC have been accumulated by all companies and spot ETFs. 4 million lost BTC equals eight years of enterprise accumulation.”
He warned that this risk will continue to influence Bitcoin’s price until Q-Day is resolved, which he projects could be five to fifteen years away. Woo added, “Until then BTCUSD will price in this risk. Q-Day is 5 to 15 years away… that’s a long time trading with a cloud over its head.”
Implications for macro investors
Woo highlighted the broader macroeconomic context, stating that the next decade is critical for Bitcoin. With the end of the long-term debt cycle, macro investors and sovereign funds often turn to hard assets such as gold to protect against global debt deleveraging. This, he says, explains why gold has outperformed Bitcoin recently.
“Unfortunately the next 10 years is when BTC is most needed. It’s the end of the long-term debt cycle, it’s where macro investors and sovereigns run to hard assets like gold to shelter from global debt deleveraging. Hence gold moons without BTC,” he wrote.
Community responses and clarifications
Some users questioned Woo’s claims. One user asked, “What have you proven? 4-year cycles?” to which Woo replied, “The trend can climb upwards for years in a wiggly line and I suppose you’ll continue to notice the 4-year oscillations in the chart while missing the whole point.”
Another user challenged the claim about the 12-year trend, stating, “Big claim with little backup. Not typical of you, Willy.” Woo responded, “It’s literally in the chart with a trend line break. I.e., BTC gaining on Gold in a steady trend. That is what’s broken. 17 years of price data in there, more than you will find anywhere else as I pulled the archives for pre-MtGox pricing.”
A separate analyst commented, “Confusing technical discourse with market causation is a fundamental analytical error. The Bitcoin Gold ratio is driven by global liquidity cycles and risk appetite, not by theoretical vulnerabilities in future computing. Price action reflects capital flows, and the current deviation is a standard consolidation after reaching historical resistance levels.”
Woo countered this perspective, arguing that capital flows themselves are telling: “It’s the nature of capital flows that’s telling. Why are old whales of Satoshi era selling in the last 12 months? ‘Correlation is not causation’ is just reply guy slop.”
What this means for Bitcoin investors
The discussion highlights the tension between long-term valuation trends, potential technological risks, and market behavior. Investors are closely watching both macroeconomic signals and on-chain activity, including movements from early Bitcoin holders, to understand future price dynamics.
Woo’s analysis suggests that while Bitcoin’s trend against gold has been interrupted, the market continues to price in both quantum computing risks and potential shifts in coin circulation. For long-term investors, this could mean years of consolidation under these clouded conditions before Bitcoin resumes a stronger upward trajectory relative to gold.
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