Key Highlights
- Bitcoin jumped after a weaker dollar but fell below $92K as investors shifted to safe havens like gold and silver.
- BTC and ETH ETFs saw $343M in outflows, while options data shows cautious traders pushing bullish bets further out.
- Rising geopolitical tensions in Iran and Fed independence concerns are driving investors toward stable assets over crypto.
The weekly markets opened with tension as Bitcoin (BTC), gold, and silver rallied sharply, following a notable drop in the U.S. dollar, according to QCP’s latest Asia Colour note. The move emerged after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed heightened political scrutiny of the Fed.
As per the QCP report, Powell made it clear that he “will not bow to political intimidation,” stressing that the Fed stays independent and focused on keeping prices stable. His statement came after the Justice Department issued subpoenas and hinted at possible criminal charges, sparking worries about the Fed’s independence.
In the fallout, the investors shifted to safe havens such as gold and silver. Bitcoin initially jumped but was unable to sustain itself above $92,000. Although the short-term effect on the economy may not be significant, the market regarded this development as an indication with a politically charged signal.
The perception of less than fully independent Fed policy always precipitates flows of funds into other forms of value. Gold and silver continued their advances, and BTC retreated before the European market opened, following the trend established in Q4 2025. Additionally, derivatives flows showed that bullish bets on Bitcoin were being pushed further out, not reinforced, suggesting caution among sophisticated traders.
Derivatives and market sentiment
Options data shows some traders are trimming their long-term bets on Bitcoin, moving them to higher price levels. Selling during U.S. trading hours has been steady, and worries about leftover supply are keeping Bitcoin from rising much.
Analyst Nick The Greek noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs are seeing outflows, adding more pressure early in the day—BTC ETFs lost $250 million, ETH lost $93.8 million, while Solana flows stayed mostly neutral.
According to him, for Bitcoin to keep its upward momentum, it needs to climb past $91,250 and then $91,900. If it can’t, the $88,000 level is likely to act as strong support. Ethereum, on the other hand, faces resistance around $3,120–$3,150, with the price possibly dropping toward $2,980 if it can’t break through.
At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading near $90,600 with a 150% in its 24 hour trading volume, as per CoinMarketCap data.
Geopolitical risks and crypto’s relative appeal
Crypto markets aren’t just facing local pressures—global events matter too. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that gold and silver have hit record highs, while Bitcoin needs a strong push to avoid a potential drop.
Additionally, Iran’s growing political tensions are also having an effect on market sentiment, and now there is a 60% probability of the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, losing power in the current year, which was only 30% in December. In light of such risks, portfolio investors may begin to favor more stable assets over cryptocurrencies.
In light of this, markets will be focused on the US CPI numbers on January 13 and the decision of the Supreme Court on tariffs on January 14.
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