Toncoin’s price had a wild swing on July 7; it jumped over 10% during the day after the TON Foundation claimed that staking $100,000 worth of TON could help investors secure a long-term UAE residency.
The news sparked immediate excitement across crypto Twitter and Telegram, pushing TON to $3.05. But the celebration didn’t last long.
Within hours, UAE authorities stepped in and publicly denied that any such program existed. That pulled the rug on the hype almost instantly, dragging the price down nearly 6%. Still, TON ended the day in the green, holding above $2.83, a 3.7% gain over 24 hours.
What stood out more than the price move was the volume. Daily trading volume spiked over 900%, crossing $795 million, signaling how quickly traders, especially whales, jumped in.
On-chain data shows that nearly 68% of TON’s supply is held by large wallets. That alone explains why moves like these tend to get amplified, both on the way up and down.
From a technical standpoint, TON found support near $2.78, which lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. That’s where the dip stopped, and some buying returned. Momentum indicators didn’t show much; RSI stayed neutral around 45, and MACD just turned slightly positive after 10 red days.
The $3.00 to $3.20 zone is still the key wall TON hasn’t been able to break in months. It tried in May but failed. Tried again in June, with the same result. Unless there’s a proper breakout above that range with strong volume backing it, this move looks like another short-lived pump. If it does clear that resistance, though, $3.60 and $4.00 are not far-fetched.
But the flip side is just as possible. If buyers lose interest again, and especially if the hype dies out, the price could slide back to $2.65 or even $2.30, where earlier support has held before.
For now, Toncoin is back in the spotlight, not because of tech updates or partnerships, but thanks to a viral residency headline that turned out to be more fiction than fact. Still, the reaction says a lot about the token’s visibility and the kind of interest it can stir up with just a headline.
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