Traditional Polls vs. Prediction Markets: who’s winning 2024?

Supporters of prediction markets argue that these platforms quickly reflect real-time developments, allowing for faster updates on public sentiment.

Written By:
Jalpa Bhavsar

Reviewed By:
Dhara Chavda

Traditional Polls Vs. Prediction Markets: Who'S Winning 2024?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches in the United States, a striking contrast has emerged between traditional polling methods and prediction markets regarding the race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Currently, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket indicate a significant lead for Donald Trump, with Kalshi assigning him a 55% probability of winning compared to 45% for Vice President Kamala Harris.

This contrasts sharply with national polls, which often show Harris slightly ahead, such as a recent New York Times tracker indicating a 50% to 47% lead for her​.

Supporters of prediction markets argue that these platforms are more responsive to real-time developments, such as debates and breaking news, allowing for quicker updates on public sentiment.

Thomas Miller, a data science professor, asserts that political betting sites effectively aggregate the “wisdom of the crowd,” which could lead to more accurate forecasts​. A Miller-run website that predicts the outcome of the Electoral College using PredictIt contract pricing currently projects Trump to win by a landslide.

However, skepticism persists regarding the reliability of these markets. Concerns about potential manipulation have arisen, especially following a surge in pro-Trump betting activity. 

Some analysts have noted a series of significant bets favoring Donald Trump, particularly from an anonymous user on Polymarket. Additionally, Elon Musk’s posts on October 7 highlighted Trump’s advantage in prediction markets, potentially motivating other Trump supporters to place their bets. According to Election Betting Odds, a noticeable increase in Trump’s lead occurred around that time.

PredictIt has cautioned that its contract for a Trump victory is nearing the maximum trader limit, which could restrict further trading for bettors​.

Also Read: Crypto Gets a Colour- It’s Black, Courtesy Kamala Harris



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Jalpa is enthusiastic content writer brings a fresh perspective to simplify complex crypto topics. She started her journey as a writer with a background as a graphic designer. She possesses talent in lettering and line art and dreams of opening her own art studio. she has an ardent love for mountain.
Dhara is a crypto content analyst and writer with over 2 years of experience in the industry. Dhara has a deep understanding of the crypto market and is well-versed in various blockchain technologies. Dhara is also an avid trader and stays current with the latest trends and news in the crypto world. With Dhara's expertise and passion for the industry, readers can expect insightful and informative content.