Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Highlight Pain But History Suggests Upside

Bitcoin has pushed decisively above the $75,000 milestone in mid-April 2026, marking a sharp rebound from recent lows near $70,000 and reigniting bullish sentiment across the crypto market. 

Notably, the latest surge comes shortly after a period of notable on-chain stress. Data from CryptoQuant shows that a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply—roughly 40% in earlier snapshots—had slipped into unrealized losses, with relative unrealized loss metrics approaching 0.14. 

Among these, long-term holders faced real paper losses, echoing mid-cycle corrections seen in 2021 and 2023 rather than the deep capitulation zones of full bear markets like 2018 or 2022.

Despite the pain, the analysts emphasize that classic capitulation signals remain absent. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has hovered in transitional territory, recently showing readings around 25–27%, far from the deeply negative levels that historically precede major bottoms. 

Realized losses have spiked at times, but sustained panic selling from long-term holders and extreme supply-in-loss percentages (often exceeding 50-60% at true lows) have not fully materialized. This suggests the market has endured a healthy shakeout without reaching exhaustion.

While unrealized losses have eased with the price recovery, the absence of full capitulation earlier could mean the cycle retains upside potential.

Historical patterns show that brief dips into average unrealized loss territory—similar to post-2023 rebounds—often precede sustained recovery phases rather than prolonged bears.

Bitcoin breaks key barriers at $75K 

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s rebound from the April 13 low near $70,758 demonstrates strong short-term resilience. The asset has reclaimed key hourly and daily moving averages, with the 20-period EMA currently sitting around $74,693 and the 50-period EMA near $74,271 on the 1-hour chart. 

Price action shows a clear short squeeze that liquidated over $427 million in bearish positions earlier in the week, propelling BTC toward the psychological $75,000 resistance zone. 

As of April 16, Bitcoin trades near $75,000–$75,100, testing the upper boundary of its recent two-month consolidation range between $62,000 and $75,000. 

A sustained daily close above $75,000 would mark the first convincing breakout of 2026, potentially opening the path toward $78,000–$80,000 in the coming weeks. 

Supporting the bullish momentum, Bitcoin remains positioned above its shorter-term EMAs while the longer-term 100- and 200-period EMAs (around $73,607 and $72,515 respectively) continue sloping upward, signaling an intact broader uptrend despite the recent correction. 

In this recent rally, volume has picked up during the recovery, and the price has successfully defended the mid-April lows without triggering deeper capitulation. However, resistance at the $75,000–$76,000 area remains significant, having rejected price twice in recent months. 

If bulls can consolidate above this level, it would ease the earlier on-chain stress and reinforce the narrative of a healthy shakeout rather than a bear market reversal. Conversely, failure to hold $74,000 could invite a retest of $72,000–$70,000 support before the next leg higher. 

Market participants are now watching whether Bitcoin can consolidate above $75,000 or if resistance from prior highs will trigger another test of lower supports. 

For now, the combination of lingering on-chain caution and renewed price strength paints a picture of resilience: the pain was real, but the market avoided total surrender, setting the stage for potential further upside in 2026.

Also read: Bitnomial Brings Regulated Injective (INJ) Futures to U.S. Traders

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