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Bitcoin News

Bitcoin More Likely to Crash at $45k than Reclaiming $100K: Polymarket Odds

Traders on Polymarket are heavily betting on Bitcoin’s downside momentum, with a 72% chance that BTC price will crash to $55,000 in 2027.

Written By Gopal Solanky Gopal Solanky
Fact Checked by Divya Mistry Divya Mistry
Published 2026-02-23·Updated 4 months ago
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Last updated: February 23, 2026 11:52 AM
Published 2026-02-23
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Last updated: February 23, 2026 11:52 AM
Published 2026-02-23
Bitcoin More Likely to Crash at $45k than Reclaiming $100K

Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $65,000, briefly dipping to around $64,400–$64,500 on major exchanges during early Asian trading hours on February 23, 2026.
  • Predictions on Polymarket show heavy bearish positioning, with 72% odds that Bitcoin crashes to $55,000 at some point in 2027. The probability of BTC dropping to $45,000 this year now exceeds the chance of reclaiming $100,000 in 2026. 
  • Analysts described it as a classic “leverage flush” exposing the extended nature of the prior rally, amid factors like tariff-related uncertainty and rotation away from risk assets.

During early Asian-trading hours, Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $65,000 on February 23, 2026, triggering a cascade of liquidations that wiped out $230 million in leveraged long positions within an hour. The sell-off, which saw Bitcoin briefly dip as low as around $64,400 on major exchanges, erased recent gains and intensified bearish sentiment across the crypto space. 

Traders pointed to heavy over-leveraged bets on the upside unraveling rapidly, with forced sales amplifying the downward pressure. The move came amid broader uncertainty, including lingering effects from earlier tariff announcements and rotation out of risk assets. 

Given the current market conditions, traders on Polymarket are heavily betting on Bitcoin’s downside momentum, with 72% chances that BTC price will crash to $55,000 in 2027. 

Bitcoin price prediction probabilities in a betting market, Source: Polymarket
Source: Polymarket

The odds of Bitcoin crashing to $45,000 are now higher than that of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 this year. However, the highest odds of 75% still gauges on the fact that BTC will surge back above $75,000 before the year ends. 

At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,950, down 4.3% in the past 24 hours. It fell swiftly from its daily high of $67,400 to as low as $64,452, as per CoinMarketCap data. This drop also dragged down the total crypt market cap 3.9% to $2.23 trillion, with large-cap altcoins like ETH, SOL, XRP, and others falling over 5% during the latest slump. 

Analysts described the liquidation event as a classic leverage flush, not necessarily marking a final bottom but exposing how extended the prior rally had become. Now all eyes are on the Monday market opening in the U.S., which tends to bought weighty volatility in the market.  

Also read: Democrats Vs. Trump: Stablecoin Regulation or Backend Deal for WLFI?

Disclaimer: The information researched and reported by The Crypto Times is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional financial advice. Investing in crypto assets involves significant risk due to market volatility. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified Financial Advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Gopal Solanky, Senior Reporter for Markets and Protocols at The Crypto Times
By Gopal Solanky Sr. Crypto Journalist
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Gopal Solanky is a Senior Reporter for Markets & Protocols at The Crypto Times, based in Ahmedabad. He covers institutional crypto adoption, Bitcoin treasury strategies, DeFi markets, protocol ecosystems, Ethereum network activity, Hyperliquid, on-chain trends, and broader digital asset market movements. Gopal has been active in the crypto ecosystem for more than six years. Before joining The Crypto Times full-time in 2023, he worked as a freelance crypto content writer, developing a strong understanding of blockchain infrastructure, DeFi protocols, market cycles, token mechanics, and peer-to-peer systems. His reporting focuses on explaining how protocols work, why market movements happen, and how institutional and on-chain activity affects crypto investors and builders. At The Crypto Times, Gopal also hosts on-the-record interviews with regional Web3 founders, protocol teams, and ecosystem leaders. His work has been cited by external publications, including Vulture.com, in coverage of major crypto stories such as the Hawk Tuah memecoin controversy. His reporting has also contributed to The Crypto Times’ coverage of major industry events, including FTX-related developments, institutional crypto adoption, and emerging protocol narratives. Gopal holds a Bachelor’s degree in Computer Applications, giving him a technical foundation for analyzing blockchain systems, crypto infrastructure, and market data.
Divya Mistry
By Divya Mistry
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Divya Mistry is the Senior Editor at The Crypto Times. She leads the central editorial desk, overseeing the review and publication of policy analyses, investigative reports, exchange coverage, and protocol exploit stories. Her editorial remit spans digital asset markets, global exchange operations, cross-border digital asset settlements, regulatory developments, and other key developments shaping the cryptocurrency industry. Divya brings more than a decade of experience in editorial strategy, content development, public relations, marketing communications, and research. Before joining The Crypto Times, she worked across multiple sectors, including finance, technology, education, healthcare, real estate, entertainment, lifestyle, and vertical transport, contributing to both digital and print publications. Her research and content work has been featured on platforms including DNA India, Zee, Forbes, and Elevator World India. She holds a Master's degree in English Literature from the University of Mumbai. Drawing on her background in long-form publishing, research, and editorial leadership, she reviews and refines complex stories to ensure accuracy, clarity, and strong editorial standards before publication.

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