Key Highlights
- Onchain investigator claims that Lighter insiders used multiple linked wallets to place on Polymarket’s airdrop date bets, suggesting coordinated skewing of odds based on private knowledge.
- Traders are criticizing Lighter for declining revenue ($7M in December vs. $40M total), lack of genuine users, manual token distribution, and overall “shady practices.”
- Total volumes for beets around Lighter topped $15 million on Polymarket, with sharp fluctuations in odds in the past few days.
The crypto community is buzzing with allegations of insider manipulation surrounding the highly anticipated LIT token airdrop from Lighter, a zk-rollup perpetuals DEX. While the airdrop is days away, a number of X posts have fueled debate, accusing insiders of skewing Polymarket odds through coordinated betting.
In a detailed thread posted on December 28, on-chain investigator Morsy alleged that Lighter insiders are using multiple linked wallets to manipulate Polymarket odds favoring LIT airdrop before year-end. While tracing transactions, Morsy identified wallets funded from Kraken that placed over $250K in “YES” bets on markets like “airdrop before December 31” and “December 29.”
The investigator’s key findings include newly created wallets receiving funds from the same Kraken hot wallet and connections to addresses that deposited large sums to Lighter pre-public beta—suggesting insider access. He warned that such activity erodes trust in prediction markets, comparing it to past crypto scams.
These findings have garnered significant attention from X users, with some debating whether the bets reflect genuine insider knowledge or sophisticated gambling. “You are betting with vibes against someone who literally has all the insiders info on paper/contracts,” Morsy noted.
Similarly, popular analyst kkomysh also highlighted a Polymarket trader who deposited $315K to bet “YES” on an upcoming Lighter airdrop. This trader also had positions on high FDV outcomes and a smaller bet on December 29 as the exact date.
Though the trader is now down $43.7K, he is still holding positions on Lighter’s “FDV above $1 billion on launch day,” “FDV above $2 billion on launch day,” and “Airdrop by December 31.”
Allegations over market manipulation
On December 28, analyst igorizuchaetcrypty directly accused the Lighter team of manipulating Polymarket through dozens of accounts, calling it “shady practices” for “pathetic $2M.” He criticized the project’s declining monthly revenue ($40M total, only $7M in December), lack of real users beyond farmers, and manual token distribution as signs of unprofessionalism.
“The Lighter team manipulates bets on Polymarket,” the analyst noted, adding, “They literally create dozens of accounts on Polymarket and place bets through them, doing it carefully to avoid suspicion.”
With his accusations, igorizuchaetcrypty advised users to stay away from the project, citing greed and comparisons to underperforming rivals like Hyperliquid. Though all these claims lack any solid source, the concern has raised debate over the team’s alleged role.
Current market sentiment and broader implications
As December 29 unfolds, Polymarket volume exceeds $15 million across Lighter markets while odds around every potential outcome for the project have fluctuated sharply. Recently, bets favoring “no airdrop in 2025” have gained massive volume while facing timing risks.
Earlier this month, Lighter transferred 250 million LIT tokens (25% supply) and enabled airdrop allocation forms, with team hints pointing to a year-end TGE. The pre-market trading for LIT token on platforms like Hyperliquid currently values the project at ~$3.5, implying a FDV potential of $3.5 billion.
These allegations underscore prediction markets’ vulnerability to informed actors where insiders can profit while distorting crowd wisdom. While no official response from Lighter has addressed the claims, the drama highlights the high-stakes speculation around one of 2025’s most farmed airdrops.
Also read: Hyperliquid Labs Unstakes $31.2M Worth of HYPE Tokens for Team
