Key Highlights
- Bitcoin fell below $100K as long-term holders sold over 815,000 BTC, adding heavy supply pressure.
- Nearly $581 million in long liquidations sits around $97,800, raising the risk of a deeper sweep.
- Repeated tests of the $100K support signal market exhaustion amid ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed pressure as its price struggles to maintain the psychological $100,000 mark. After dipping to $100,700 on Wednesday, BTC dropped further, trading near $97,813 at the time of reporting, reflecting a 4.2% decline on the weekly candle.
The fall comes amid increasing sales from long-term holders and a broader market environment weighed down by economic concerns and risk-off sentiment.
Long-term holders drive selling pressure
According to the market data, long-term Bitcoin holders, wallets that have held BTC for six months or more, have sold more than 815,000 BTC within the last 30 days. This is the largest amount of such activity since January 2024.
Analysts are speculating that this profit-taking is a repeat of what has been observed in the past cycle peaks where experienced holders sell coins following months-long rallies.
According to CryptoQuant, this sustained distribution across cohorts ranging from six months to seven-plus years is creating a supply overhang, which weakens price support.
This selling coincides with a significant increase in leveraged positions around key price levels. CoinGlass data indicates that nearly $582.75 million in long leveraged BTC positions cluster near $98,000, highlighting the potential for a sharp price sweep if volatility accelerates.
The futures traders had earlier been aiming at upside levels of around $110,000 whereas the current market price action is indicating that the market might return to the lows first.
Liquidity compression and market structure
Analysts tracking BTC’s liquidity landscape have noted a growing imbalance between support and resistance. Trader Daan Crypto highlighted a “a big cluster below the local lows at $98K-$100K,” pointing to a series of marginally higher lows forming just above this zone.
Futures trader Byzantine General also warned that Bitcoin “is likely to sweep the lows around $98,000,” suggesting a potential short-term downside target if selling pressure continues.
Repeated tests of the $100,000-$102,000 support band, now the fourth since May 2025, indicate structural fatigue in the market. Each retest reduces buyer conviction, depletes resting bid liquidity, and increases the likelihood of a breakdown.
Analyst UBCrypto termed the recent price activity a failed breakout, which is likely an area that should not be purchased until a more active recovery is established.
Market sentiment and broader factors
Sentiment is mixed, although it is weak in the short term. According to data provided by Hyblock Capital, 68.9% of international BTC orders on Binance remain in the long side, which means that numerous traders are defending the $100,000 floor.
Meanwhile, crypto prices are also affected by macroeconomic events. The recent decline of Bitcoin was related to the general risk-off mood as traders sold tech shares and cryptocurrencies on the fears of economic slump.
The fact that the government of the United States recently opened after the longest shutdown since its inception combined with the hawkish remarks of Fed Chair Jerome Powell has curbed the anticipation of the rate cuts.
The FedWatch tool has predicted that chances of a rate cut are 66.9% by 85% last week. The data of weak jobs, such as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls decreasing by 50,000 in October and the data of the ADP weekly job losses exceeding 11,000 further kill the market optimism.
Impact on other cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s weakness has also affected the broader crypto market. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH) fell nearly 9.67% trading around $3,131.77, while Solana (SOL) declined about 8.45% to $141.37. XRP (XRP), however, dropped 8% to $2.27 following the launch of a spot ETF providing exposure to the token.
Short-term prospects and investor view
Experts are still split on the way forward of Bitcoin. Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu observed that the BTC might reach new heights in the middle term, but in the short-run, the volatility will probably remain high due to declining institutional investment and ETF withdrawals.
BitBull CEO Joe DiPasquale, in his turn, believes in a cautiously bullish outlook as Bitcoin uptrend is preserved, with buyers continuously forming support levels and generating higher lows in the market cycles.
Prediction markets, such as Myriad Markets, show a 54.7% probability of Bitcoin reaching $115,000 before falling to $85,000, reflecting a cautious optimism among retail investors.
Analysts emphasize that the immediate test lies in the $98,000-$100,000 range. If buyers fail to hold this band, the market could experience a deeper correction toward mid-cycle support levels.
Background and recent trends
In October, Bitcoin became the headline when it temporarily reached the all-time high of $125,000. Nevertheless, numerous drops were witnessed in the month before beneath $100,000 prompted by selling off of profits, macroeconomic worry, and ETF withdrawals.
According to historical trends, the long-term estimates of the periods of heavy selling by holders are often followed by price consolidation before another significant rise.
The volatility is very high and investors are observing main liquidity clusters, support bands and macroeconomic indicators keenly. The coming week will probably decide whether Bitcoin keeps at or above the six-figure range, or trades the same levels as in June 2025 lows near $98,000.
Also Read: Bitcoin to Outperform Gold by 2035: Michael Saylor
