The odds of a full XRP ETF approval have jumped to 86% on Polymarket after the launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF on NYSE Arca on July 18. This sudden jump in approval odds has excited many investors who are waiting for an XRP spot ETF. Many in the space now wonder when, not if, it will happen.
ProShares officially launched the Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) this week, offering 2x leveraged exposure to XRP futures.
On its first day, the ETF opened at $50.84 and went as high as $57.86. It ended the day at $53.94, up by 6.10%. Currently, it’s trading for $54.01.
The strong debut helped increase market confidence and showed that traders are interested in XRP-related investment products, even before a real spot ETF gets approved.
This leveraged product is different from a typical ETF because it uses futures contracts to track the price of XRP. It doesn’t hold actual XRP but tries to double the daily price movement. Investors are drawn to this kind of product because of the potential for higher returns, especially with Ripple’s growing partnerships and rising institutional interest.
Polymarket, which is a site where people can bet on future events, showed a 15% jump in XRP ETF approval odds in just one day. This suggests that the launch of UXRP may be more than just another ETF; it could be a stepping stone to a full spot approval.
That strategy would follow the same path taken with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Futures-based products were launched first, followed by filings to switch them into spot ETFs when conditions improved. The success of UXRP could help XRP follow the same path.
Moreover, the support for the New U.S. crypto laws is also helping.. The GENIUS Act, which sets new rules for stablecoins and digital assets, was signed into law yesterday by President Trump after passing the U.S House on Thursday.
This bill, along with public comments from SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, gives hope that the SEC will approve more crypto products soon. Peirce recently said the agency is open to new ideas, as long as they meet compliance standards.
With these new laws and strong trading data, the market is now expecting a full XRP spot ETF to be approved sometime soon.
