With the rising tensions between Iran and the United States, the news cycle is getting hotter, with any statement or report having the potential of causing a seismic effect. One of the most controversial statements in recent times has been made by Mike Alfred in his post on X. Alfred claimed that Iran is selling Bitcoin it allegedly stole through cyberattacks to purchase missiles and other equipment as an alternative to its uranium enrichment program.
Furthermore, he declared a personal boycott of buying Bitcoin until, in his words, Iran is done selling, and he reckoned that Iran would be out of BTC in 48-72 hours. So how true is this statement, and what does the evidence really say?
The Nobitex Hack: A Geopolitical Flashpoint
The context of Alfred assertion is a dramatic cyberattack on June 18, 2025, where hackers breached Nobitex, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in Iran, and stole over $90 million worth of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and other altcoins. This hack was not a typical act of cybercrime.Â
The attack was framed by the group behind it, Predatory Sparrow, which is widely thought to have links to Israel, as a politically motivated attack in the growing tensions between Israel and Iran. The hackers mocked the Iranian authorities by embedding anti-IRGC messages in the wallet addresses used to drain Nobitex’s funds.
The key to the situation, however, is what happens to the stolen crypto. Rather than selling the assets to make a profit, the hackers moved the money into so-called burner wallet addresses that had no access to a private key, essentially destroying the assets and rendering them unrecoverable. This was a clear statement: the aim was not to enrich the attackers and give Iran new money, but to harm the digital financial infrastructure of Iran.
Does the Claim by Mike Alfred Stand?
The claim by Alfred that Iran is selling hacked Bitcoin to finance its military and nuclear desires is not completely far-fetched since the nation has been reported to use crypto to evade sanctions. Nevertheless, the details of his allegation, especially the claim that Iran is selling large quantities of Bitcoin within a short 48–72-hour window is not backed by the facts of the Nobitex hack.
Iran did not sell the stolen assets worth $90 million; they were burned by the hackers, and this was a blow to Iran’s crypto reserves rather than an increase. In addition, although Iran does have considerable crypto assets as a result of mining, and potentially other sources, the amount that the government actually holds remains unknown.
The numbers are uncertain, but given that Iranian mining operations have been generating hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin each year, the nation is probably sitting on a sizable, but not market-moving, pile of digital assets. Assuming that Iran sells a huge percentage of its BTC, the market will be deep enough to accommodate the sales without having devastating effects on prices.
War, and the Rush to Sell Crypto Assets
The recent missile attacks by Iran on U.S. bases in Qatar are a dangerous step in the current conflict and the direct military confrontation is a reality now. In the past, these geopolitical hot spots have significantly influenced financial behavior within Iran. Evidence indicates that when tensions are high, e.g. when missiles are launched or when there is military tension, the outflow of cryptocurrency from Iranian exchanges has increased dramatically.
The trend is fueled by the government players and the common people who want to hedge against the failing rial and the impending sanctions. Crypto assets have become a lifeline to the Iranian regime, which uses them to finance conflict and circumvent international sanction.
Further, exchanges such as Nobitex have been used to trade billions of dollars that are often operating beyond international scrutiny. With the war heating up, there is a high probability that Iran will hasten to obtain hard currency for its military and strategic needs, potentially contributing to volatility of global digital asset markets.
What If Iran Sells Its Bitcoin?
In case Iran decides to sell its crypto assets, both mined and otherwise, the short-term impact on the market would probably be minimal, in the form of heightened volatility, instead of a crash. The approximate annual crypto revenue of Iran is estimated at approximately $1 billion, and the daily trading volumes in the global exchanges frequently exceed this amount.
Although this kind of sale would give Iran the much-needed hard currency to either buy imports or fund the military, the overall impact on global crypto markets would be minimal. The actual threat is the geopolitical aspect: more attention and possible sanctions on transactions or organizations detected to facilitate such operations.
Also Read: Crypto Market Dips as Iran-US Tensions Rise: Bitcoin Falls Below $100K
