According to a report by the bank’s analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin is starting to gain ground at gold’s expense — a shift they believe will likely continue in the coming months. The reason? A mix of rising corporate interest and increasing support from individual U.S. states.
For years, investors have turned to both gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against weakening fiat currencies, especially during periods of inflation or global uncertainty. It’s what’s commonly called the “debasement trade.” But this year, that play has turned into more of a zero-sum game.
From February to mid-April, gold was the clear winner. It was rising while Bitcoin stayed relatively flat. But over the last three weeks, the tables have turned. Bitcoin is now on the rise — and it’s gold that’s losing ground.
“Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin,” JPMorgan analysts wrote. “But over the past three weeks, we’ve been observing the opposite.”
The analysts say they expect this back-and-forth trend to carry on through the rest of the year. However, they’re leaning towards Bitcoin having more upside thanks to a few crypto-specific developments.
Since April 22, the price of gold has dropped by nearly 8%. In that same time, Bitcoin has jumped 18%.
It’s not just price action either. Investor behavior has shifted. Over the past few weeks, money has been flowing out of gold ETFs and into Bitcoin funds. Futures data is telling the same story — positions in gold are being reduced, while bets on Bitcoin are increasing.
Earlier this year, the pattern was reversed — Bitcoin was lagging, and gold was the safe play. Now, it looks like the momentum is shifting.
What’s Driving Bitcoin?
JPMorgan doesn’t just credit gold’s decline for Bitcoin’s recent strength. A few Bitcoin-specific developments are playing a big role.
First, there’s corporate buying. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been adding to its Bitcoin stash. The company is planning to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin purchases by 2027, and has already hit 32% of that target. Another firm, Metaplanet, is doing the same.
Second, there’s the growing involvement of U.S. states. New Hampshire, for example, recently gave the green light for up to 5% of state assets to be invested in Bitcoin and gold. Arizona is going a step further — setting up a digital asset reserve, funded through airdrops and staking rewards. Arizona has also pledged not to raise taxes in the process.
These moves, according to JPMorgan, could turn into a long-term boost for Bitcoin if more states follow suit.
All signs point to this gold-versus-Bitcoin battle continuing through the rest of 2025. But with institutional demand increasing and U.S. states beginning to treat Bitcoin like a serious strategic asset, JPMorgan believes Bitcoin has the edge.
The bank’s analysts say crypto-specific catalysts — like corporate holdings, ETF demand, and government-level interest — could help Bitcoin keep climbing, especially if gold continues to struggle.
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