On August 12, Polymarket saw a flurry of activity as users wagered nearly $5 million on what former President Donald Trump would say during his conversation with Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
The event, which took place on Musk’s Twitter Space, became a hotbed for betting, with 11 markets tracking a range of potential topics from “bitcoin” to “tampon.”
The betting frenzy revealed some intriguing trends. The most money was spent predicting Trump would mention “crypto,” followed closely by “MAGA” and “illegal immigrant.” The betting went so viral that it saw over 1,500 comments on Polymarket. In the end, Trump used the terms “MAGA,” “illegal immigrant,” and surprisingly, “tampon.”
For those who bet on “MAGA,” the odds were relatively modest, sitting at 59% when Trump mentioned it, meaning they would see less than double their money. Bets on “illegal immigrant” saw the odds rise from 46% as Trump spoke. However, the biggest payoff was for those who predicted “tampon”—with odds at just 7% when he said the word, they saw a massive 14X return on their bets.
In contrast, bets on “crypto” were a bust. The odds for Trump mentioning “crypto” started at 65% but fell to zero by the end of the speech, resulting in substantial losses for those who had wagered on it.
The conversation itself was delayed by about 40 minutes due to a DDoS attack, according to Musk, and covered topics like immigration, inflation, and a recent assassination attempt on Trump.
Polymarket, known for its crypto-based prediction markets, allows users to trade tokens representing different outcomes. For this event, users bought “yes” tokens if they thought Trump would say a particular word and “no” tokens if they didn’t. Each market’s outcome is resolved on a scale from $0 to $1.
The platform has also seen significant betting on U.S. election outcomes, with $581 million wagered so far. Currently, Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 52% odds against Trump’s 46%, despite Trump’s previous higher odds.
