Fidelity's Timmer: Bitcoin, Gold Top Investment Returns

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, says it’s no anomaly that Bitcoin continues to sit near the top of the global returns leaderboard alongside gold and international equities, while bonds remain stuck at the bottom.

In a new market note, Timmer argues that Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative continues to play well in a macro environment where fiat currencies weaken and U.S. fiscal dominance drives capital into domestic risk assets. Gold, long considered Bitcoin’s analog in legacy markets, has so far outpaced the digital asset in 2025.

Earlier this year, Timmer suggested that gold might eventually “pass the baton” to Bitcoin, implying a reversal in performance leadership. That handoff, however, has yet to happen. While Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in late August, its momentum quickly stalled. Meanwhile, gold surged above $3,650 this week to notch another record as investors increasingly price in potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

In previous commentary, Timmer projected that quantitative easing (QE) could return as the Fed faces structural fiscal pressure. Both Bitcoin and gold, he noted, would be primary beneficiaries of a renewed wave of liquidity.

Cycles and institutional gravity

Timmer also weighed in on the ongoing debate around whether Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle still holds weight in a market now dominated by institutional players. Despite changing dynamics, he believes the asset continues to follow the historical rhythm, supported by supply mechanics and macro tailwinds.

In July, Timmer described Bitcoin and gold as being in the “middle innings” of the hard money trade, driven by expanding global money supply and a still-dominant U.S. dollar.

Fidelity’s framing of Bitcoin as hard money isn’t just narrative, it reflects a shift in macro playbooks. If QE returns, Bitcoin’s role won’t just echo gold’s, it could become central to it.