The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is staring down its most consequential stretch yet. With a Senate Banking Committee markup now pushed to May and the August recess fast approaching, the crypto industry is running the numbers on how much time is actually left to get comprehensive market structure legislation across the finish line.
Ji Kim, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, pegged the available floor time at roughly 13 weeks. But that number is generous. Once scheduled recesses are stripped out, the Senate has closer to 9 or 10 working weeks to move the bill, a window made even narrower by competing priorities, including a looming FISA reauthorization deadline, the budget resolution needed to launch reconciliation, and must-pass Department of Homeland Security funding.
“We have about 13 weeks left on the [Senate] floor to get something done,” Kim told Crypto In America, framing the real deadline as getting the bill to President Trump’s desk before lawmakers scatter for midterm campaign season.
The problem is, the bill has not even made it out of the Senate Banking Committee.
Stablecoin yield dispute continues to hold up progress
The Clarity Act has been stalled at the committee level since January, when an initial markup was scrapped after key industry support collapsed. An April markup, once considered likely, has now been ruled out after Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) asked Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) for additional time to present a compromise on stablecoin yield and rewards to banking groups.
“It’s very important to me not to accelerate things, to hear everybody and give them a rational basis for what we do accept and what we don’t accept,” Tillis told reporters last week.
Tillis’ ask for more time coincides with an aggressive lobbying push from the banking industry. The North Carolina Bankers Association has ramped up outreach to his office in recent days, warning against what it sees as loopholes that would permit yield-like rewards on stablecoins and threaten the traditional deposit business model.
The stablecoin yield debate, which traces back to unresolved language from last year’s GENIUS Act, has effectively hijacked the Clarity Act’s timeline since the start of the year.
Patrick Witt, a senior crypto adviser in the Trump White House, did not mince words on the matter. “It’s hard to explain any further lobbying by banks on this issue as motivated by anything other than greed or ignorance,” Witt posted on X earlier this month. “Move on.”
On the other side of the fight, the North Carolina Blockchain Initiative urged Tillis to move the bill to markup, pushing back on bank opposition and arguing the legislation is essential to keeping North Carolina competitive as a major U.S. banking hub.
Industry ramps up pressure
More than 120 crypto firms, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Circle, signed onto a letter led by the Blockchain Association and the Crypto Council for Innovation, calling on Senate leadership to schedule a markup “as soon as practicable.” Separately, the Digital Chamber sent its own letter to Senate leaders on April 20, demanding the bill move into a formal markup stage.
Kim, speaking with Crypto In America, expressed confidence that once a stablecoin yield compromise is locked in, the remaining issues can be resolved quickly. “I think it’ll go pretty quickly actually. Obviously rewards is an important issue… but the other open issues are still being discussed in parallel.”
Those other open issues are not trivial, though. Outstanding questions around DeFi provisions, ethics language aimed at preventing senior government officials from profiting off crypto interests, and the appointment of vacant SEC and CFTC commissioner seats remain active points of negotiation.
Lummis pledges May markup at Bitcoin 2026
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), who chairs the Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, offered the clearest timeline yet during her appearance at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference at the Venetian in Las Vegas on Monday.
“We are going to markup the Clarity Act in May. We are going to get it to the finish line,” Lummis told the crowd of more than 40,000 attendees.
Lummis added that stablecoin language and the market structure provisions are “almost 99% sorted out,” and warned that failure to act this year would mean waiting until at least 2030 for another shot at comprehensive crypto regulation, as a new Congress would need to restart the entire legislative process from scratch.
With the Senate heading into a weeklong recess starting Thursday, the earliest the Banking Committee could schedule a markup is the week of May 11, assuming the remaining disputes around stablecoin yield, DeFi, and ethics are wrapped up in time. Congress then breaks again for Memorial Day recess on May 21, leaving an extremely tight window.
Galaxy Digital puts the odds at 50-50
The urgency is not lost on market observers. In a research note published April 22, Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn estimated the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at roughly 50-50, and possibly lower.
“The uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the sheer number of unresolved questions that must be settled in sequence under severe time pressure,” Thorn wrote.
Galaxy outlined the five sequential hurdles the bill still faces: a Senate Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version (which passed committee in January), reconciliation with the House-passed Clarity Act from July 2025, and a presidential signature.
Polymarket odds currently sit at around 47% for the Clarity Act being signed into law this year, down from 82% in February. Kalshi estimates only a 15% chance of passage before July and about 37% before August.
Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) offered his own deadline at a Washington event on April 22, declaring that the bill must clear Congress by the end of May or risk being shelved indefinitely.
Kevin Warsh confirmation adds to Senate Banking Committee’s plate
Before the Clarity Act can command the committee’s full attention, the Senate Banking Committee has another major item on its agenda: advancing Kevin Warsh’s nomination to become the next Federal Reserve Chair.
Senator Tillis lifted his block on Warsh’s confirmation on Sunday after the Department of Justice dropped its investigation into outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell over alleged building renovation cost overruns. The committee is now set to vote on Warsh’s nomination on Wednesday at 10 a.m. EDT.
That vote lands on the same day Powell announces the Fed’s next interest rate decision following the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at the current 3.5% to 3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting, amid persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty driven by rising energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
Powell’s term as Fed Chair expires May 15. If Warsh clears the committee on Wednesday, a full Senate vote could follow shortly after, putting him in a position to chair the Fed’s next meeting in June. Warsh, who served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis, has been viewed as broadly pro-crypto.
What comes next
The path forward is narrow but not closed. If the Senate Banking Committee manages to schedule and complete a markup by mid-May, the bill could theoretically reach a full Senate floor vote by June or July, leave time for reconciliation with the House version, and land on the President’s desk before the August recess.
But every day of delay eats into that timeline. The Senate is already juggling Iran military authorization debates, unresolved DHS funding, and a backlog of presidential nominations. Democrats have flagged additional concerns around vacant SEC and CFTC commissioner seats that could become leverage in floor negotiations.
The House cleared the Clarity Act in July 2025 with a 294-134 bipartisan vote. The Senate has not taken a single formal vote on it yet.
If the bill does become law, it would be the second landmark crypto bill enacted under the Trump administration, following the GENIUS Act for stablecoins. If it stalls, industry leaders warn there may not be another realistic window until 2030.
Also Read: Western Union Targets Crypto With USDPT Stablecoin Launch in May
