VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel says that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit $180,000 by 2025, driven by macroeconomic trends, inflation hedging, and increasing retail speculation.
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell, Sigel predicted Bitcoin’s continued rise during the current bull cycle while emphasizing that corporate adoption remains sluggish due to structural and regulatory hurdles.
Sigel highlighted that traditional asset managers, like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, still adhere to rigid 60-40 asset allocation models, limiting Bitcoin integration.
Approximately 80% of Bitcoin ETF holders today are retail or high-net-worth individuals. However, broader institutional adoption could accelerate if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reverses its accounting rule, SAB 121, which complicates Bitcoin custody for banks. Sigel expects this regulatory shift in early 2025, potentially unlocking mainstream financial platforms for Bitcoin.
Sigel underscored Bitcoin’s historical price patterns to justify his $180,000 forecast. Following the April 2024 halving, Sigel expects strong years in 2024 and 2025 before a potential correction in 2026.
His projection assumes a conservative 1,000% increase from Bitcoin’s $18,000 low during the last bear market—significantly less than previous trough-to-peak gains.
Looking ahead, Sigel envisions Bitcoin reaching $450,000 in the next cycle, equivalent to half of gold’s market cap (excluding industrial and jewelry use). Over the longer term, if global central banks adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset with just a 2% allocation—compared to gold’s 18%—he sees a path to $1 million per coin by 2050.
While the U.S. government swapping gold reserves for Bitcoin remains unlikely, Sigel proposed Bitcoin miners could play a role in infrastructure projects, particularly in initiatives like Trump’s proposed “Freedom Cities.” Sigel also promoted VanEck’s nuclear energy ETF (NLR), citing rising demand for clean energy solutions to support Bitcoin mining.
Despite his bullish stance, Sigel remains cautious about short-term hype, stressing that Bitcoin’s long-term role as “digital gold” and a hedge against financial instability is becoming increasingly undeniable.
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