The excitement around crypto is again gearing up with the Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, making an extraordinary debut into the public market on June 5, 2025. The firm’s IPO was initially priced at $31 per share and raised $1.05 billion, with a valuation of $6.9 billion prior to launch. On the first day of listing, CRCL stock jumped 168%, creating a buzz in the market.
After this stunning debut in the market, many investors are now raising questions: is it the right time to buy CRCL, or do we have to wait? In this post, we will try to decode this question by exploring the basics, market potential, risks, and timing strategies to help you make a more informed decision.
Brief Look At The Circle Internet Group
The Circle Internet Group is a financial technology company, founded in 2013 by Jeremy Allaire and Sean Neville. It is known for its stablecoin USDC, the second-largest stablecoin by market cap. The stablecoin is pegged to the U.S. dollar in a 1:1 ratio and provides price stability in the crypto market.
Circle has also collaborated with Coinbase in 2018 to launch Centre Consortium which plays an important role in the development of USDC. Since then, the stablecoin has grown into a major player in the crypto ecosystem, giving tough competition to Tether (USDT).
The stablecoin issuer has partnered with more than 500 institutions and offers direct issuance on 19 blockchains. The company also includes products like Euro Coin (EURC) and the Circle Payments Network. Such feats make Circle a vital pillar of crypto infrastructure.
CRCL IPO and Institutional Backing
Circle’s IPO (NYSE:CRCL) made a tremendous debut in the market, opening at $69 on Thursday, June 5, which is more than double the initial pricing. Thereafter, Circle share price surged 168% and closed at $83.23. The stock broke records, marking the strongest debut for a billion-dollar U.S. IPO in over three decades.
Also, on the second day, the rally continued, and the price reached 4x of the initial price. This initial price rise shows high investor confidence in Circle’s position as a major stablecoin issuer in the growing digital asset space.
Analysts attribute this massive growth to institutional backing. For instance, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest purchased 4.48 million CRCL shares worth $373.4 million across its ETFs. Moreover, BlackRock, the largest asset manager, is reportedly planning to acquire a 10% stake in Circle stock.
Further, the offering was also supported by major stakeholders like J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, etc. This strong backing from major institutions also marks the growing trust in the USDC stablecoin’s future.
What is Circle’s Current Financial Standing?
Circle’s financial situation sets a good example in the crypto industry, as discussed below:
- Revenue Growth: Circle’s revenue increased from $772 million in 2022 to $1.7 billion in 2024
- Profitability: In 2022, it had a net loss of $768 million, but in 2024, it earned a profit of $155.7 million.
- Cash Flow: The company’s operating cash flow went from negative $72.7 million in 2022 to positive $344.6 million in 2024.
- Cash Reserves: By the end of 2024, the company’s cash reserves were $751 million, which is double the amount of their last year’s reserves.
Stablecoin Market Potential
Stablecoins, the core of Circle’s business, are expected to show remarkable development. The latest numbers suggest that the stablecoin market is now valued at more than $215 billion, and by 2030, it may skyrocket to a size of $3.7 trillion, according to Citigroup’s forecast.
With Circle’s main role in this sector through USDC and EURC, it is set to capture a sizable portion of this future value. The stablecoin industry is expected to grow significantly owing to the following reasons:
- Integration of stablecoins into the traditional financial systems
- The increasing use of stablecoins in cross-border payments
- Quick adoption of blockchain technology by business enterprises across the globe.
- Stablecoins are now used as a new digital dollar.
Risks Associated with Circle
Below are some potential risks involved with Circle Internet Group:
1. Interest Rate Exposure
A large part of Circle’s USDC holdings is invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. In the event of an interest rate hike, the value of these bonds may decrease, thus affecting Circle’s profits and financial statement negatively.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty
The global crypto-regulatory environment is characterized by a high degree of volatility. Dealing different standards across multiple jurisdictions can limit market access and increase compliance costs. It also invites stricter oversight and any of which can slow down growth or even pose existential threats.
3. High Distribution Expenses
Moreover, there is fear among some of the financial analysts that Circle’s distribution expenses are going through the roof, which may lead to a situation where not only are gross margins be reduced, but also the profitability in the long run is at risk.
Should You Buy CRCL Now or Wait?
According to a former Goldman Sachs analyst, Dom Kwok, an IPO is often intentionally low priced to create an atmosphere of expectation and excitement. Moreover, the rush of funds it attracts may not always come from “intelligent” retail investors.
Kwok strongly declared: “I would not invest in Circle’s IPO after a 168% pop.” Now, here’s where things get interesting—the lock-up period. This is a standard rule in most IPOs where insiders and early investors can not sell their shares for a set time which is usually between 90 to 180 days and Circle’s lock-up period is of 180 days.
After the lock-up period is over, usually, a large number of insiders sell their holdings. The abrupt selling pressure then leads to the stock price falling. For a long-term investor, this is an opportunity to buy at a reduced price.
For instance, when the lock-up period of Facebook ended in 2012 it experienced an all time low in its stock price. Some experienced investors see this price dip as an opportunity. Circle’s share price could have the same effect, so now it is suggested to wait and watch.
Also, Kwok suggested that the CRCL stock at the $22 billion valuation could serve as an excellent short opportunity. If traders take this into account and place bearish bets on the stock, the possibility of a short squeeze increases.
For context, if CRCL stock suddenly gains momentum owing to a positive news tied to the company, these short traders would have to liquidate their positions and buy back leverages. This would lead to increased buying pressure, which could send the stock skyrocketing.
Hence, bullish traders could profit from it by accumulating shares at low prices and selling them at a premium. Nevertheless, it still might not be a lucrative option for investors looking for long-term potential as short squeeze eventually leads to a dump owing to massive profit taking moves.
However, the CRCL stock has shown an impeccable performance with a 29.40% surge on Friday, closing at $107.70. In addition, it gained 6.96% in the after hours, pushing the share price to $115.20. If the performance is consistent, even long-term investors could target major returns but it’s advised to analyze the technicals before doing so.
Final Thoughts
If you are a long-term investor, then Circle shows a big opportunity. The company operates in a fast-growing industry and has proven financial strength in a competitive stablecoin market backed by major institutions.
However, jumping in right after a 168% IPO spike is too risky. It is wise to wait for a post-lock-up dip, when prices stabilize and early investors cash out. That window may offer a discounted entry point with reduced volatility and better clarity on performance.
Also Read: Analyst Calls for Bearish Bets on Circle Stock, Short Squeeze Incoming?
